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  • The Chargers improved to 11-6 in their first season under head coach Jim Harbaugh.
  • Houston finished 10-7 and on top of a less-than-competitive AFC South Division.
  • Head-to-head, LA has won six of nine matchups, but they have not played since 2022.

The NFL postseason is underway with our Chargers vs Texans Wild Card prediction. Los Angeles played in a tougher division than Houston, which should factor into the result of this Wild Card game.

TeamSpreadMoney LineTotal
Chargers-3 (+100)-150O 42.5 (-105)
Texans+3 (-120)+130U 42.5 (-115)

The Chargers Reflect Their Head Coach

Under Harbaugh, the Chargers have done a 180 from their underachievement for former head coach Brandon Staley. Instead of tailoring their game plan to the numbers and what their opponents did, they exerted their will. For Harbaugh, that means establishing the running game and relying on a punishing, opportunistic defense.

QB Justin Herbert posted less gaudy numbers this year, throwing for 3,870 and 23 touchdowns. Yet, he was intercepted only three times and posted the best interception percentage in the league. Herbert’s success in Harbaugh’s hard-nosed system has been impressive, especially after they traded away their top WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.

The Chargers’ defense focuses on pressure and stopping the downfield passing game. They were sixth in the league in sacks. Houston is without receivers Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs. Their absence has allowed teams to focus on stopping Pro Bowl running back Joe Mixon. Mixon has been held to 57 yards or fewer on the ground in the Texans’ last four games.

Texans Looking to Prove their Worth

Houston coasted to a postseason spot thanks in part to a very weak AFC South division. They looked less than confident in games against other top teams, partly due to the minor regression of QB C.J. Stroud, who has struggled to build on his outstanding rookie season. Even so, the Texans enter this game with a chance to pull off the upset and make another postseason run.

With Stroud underperforming and his top asset, WR Stefon Diggs, injured, Houston needs their defense to be at its very best. 2nd-year DL Will Anderson had another sensational year. He finished the regular season with 11 sacks and will be key in giving the Texans a chance to compete with Harbaugh’s Chargers. The Texans will need to avoid falling behind late or it will be difficult to win this game. Look for head coach DeMeco Ryans to formulate a brand-new game plan for this matchup.

Chargers vs Texans: Wild Card Playoff Prediction

Houston has the home-field advantage in this game, which will certainly aid their chances of winning. They still enter this game as the underdog, however, due to their subpar strength of schedule. Whether or not Houston can beat good teams will be put to the test this week. We expect them to keep the game close and low-scoring in order to have a chance of beating a Harbaugh-led Chargers. Ultimately, we see Los Angeles proving to be too much for the Texans to handle.

Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.0)
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