Published Jun 21, 8:23pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 21, 8:23pm ET
Updated Jun 21, 8:23pm ET
|
|
|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | +130 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | -154 |
Eric Lauer is 2-5 with a 5.37 ERA. He signed with Los Angeles as a depth piece and has been exactly that, an arm that eats innings without generating confidence. His FIP of 6.46 is nearly a full run above the already-poor ERA, meaning hitters have been making harder contact than the runs allowed suggest. His last three FIPs of 6.03 confirm the recent stretch has matched the season pattern. Lauer can go five innings and give the Dodgers a chance; he's done it before. The underlying numbers say it hasn't been happening with any consistency.
Los Angeles is 49-28 and has won six of its last ten. Their .779 OPS lineup is the best offensive unit in this game by a significant margin. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Shohei Ohtani remain a formidable trio even in a road start for a below-average pitcher. The Dodgers' bullpen FIP of 3.46 with a 27.9% strikeout rate is also the cleaner backend unit by a wide margin.
Zebby Matthews is 3-4 with a 4.78 ERA. His FIP of 4.74 closely matches the ERA-consistent sequencing, with no significant over- or underperformance. His last-three FIP of 4.85 shows stability. Matthews works off a fastball-changeup combination that generates grounders and limits walks. He won't blow anyone away, but he's been the more predictable starting option in this specific matchup, and at home against a road pitcher with a 6.46 FIP, that predictability carries value.
Minnesota is 37-41 and has won seven of its last ten games — the better recent form in this matchup. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa give the Twins their most dangerous offensive contributors, and Target Field plays as a fair environment. This is a lean, not a lock: the Dodgers' roster quality is real, and their lineup and bullpen are both better than Minnesota's on paper. The case for the Twins rests almost entirely on Lauer's poor underlying form.
Lauer's 6.46 FIP is the worst mark of any starter on Monday's slate. Matthews is the steadier arm and Minnesota is the hotter team over the last ten games.
Pick: Minnesota Twins +130
|
Pick
Minnesota Twins +130
|
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000
|
