Published Jun 21, 8:18pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 21, 8:18pm ET
Updated Jun 21, 8:18pm ET
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| Miami Marlins | -125 |
| Texas Rangers | +105 |
Kumar Rocker is 2-6 with a 4.17 ERA. His FIP of 4.43 sits above the surface ERA, and his last-three FIP of 5.46 shows a real dip from his season baseline. He has allowed three or more earned runs in four of his last six starts, and his command has been the primary issue: too many walks, too many hittable pitches in the middle of the zone. Texas is 36-40 and has won four of its last ten games. Their .705 OPS lineup has been capable of scoring runs, but the Rangers' bullpen FIP of 4.96 with an 18.5% strikeout rate is the weakest backend unit in this game by a considerable margin.
Corey Seager and Marcus Semien give Texas their two most productive bats, and on a given night either one can change a game. The Rangers can win this game. Their bullpen makes it difficult to hold leads when they do.
Tyler Phillips is 1-2 with a 3.10 ERA. His FIP of 4.28 says the ERA has been outrunning the underlying contact quality, but the surface number has held across enough starts to carry weight. His last-three FIP of 5.65 is a concern — he's been trending cold over his most recent outings. What he has working for him Monday is home field and a Miami bullpen that has been one of the better backend units in the NL this month.
Miami is 39-38 and has won seven of its last ten games. Jorge Soler and Jake Burger anchor the Marlins lineup at a .710 OPS. Their bullpen FIP of 3.31 with a 26.2% strikeout rate is the clear edge in this game — nearly 1.65 points better than Texas's backend. If Phillips exits early, Miami has the relief depth to hold a lead in ways Texas simply does not.
Both starters are trending cold, but Miami's bullpen is 1.65 FIP points better than Texas's and the Marlins are 7-3 in their last ten. This is a team-strength play more than a starter mismatch. The backend edge and the form edge both point the same direction.
Marlins.
Pick: Miami Marlins -125
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Pick
Miami Marlins -125
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