Published Jun 21, 8:18pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 21, 8:18pm ET
Updated Jun 21, 8:18pm ET
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| Tampa Bay Rays | -175 |
| Kansas City Royals | +145 |
Michael Wacha is 4-5 with a 3.64 ERA. His FIP of 4.02 sits above the surface ERA, which means the results have been slightly better than the underlying contact quality supports. His last-three FIP of 4.28 is a tick above his season baseline. Wacha works efficiently, limits walks, and keeps the ball in the park. Those qualities have kept him competitive in most starts this season. Against Rasmussen's current form, competitive may not be enough.
Kansas City is 32-45 and has won four of its last ten games. Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino anchor the Royals lineup at a .716 OPS. The Royals' bullpen FIP of 4.98 is the weaker backend unit in this game, which becomes relevant if Wacha gives Tampa Bay a chance to hit in the later innings.
Drew Rasmussen is 6-3 with a 2.59 ERA. He set a career high with 13 strikeouts in a recent start, generating whiffs on his cutter and generating soft contact with his sinker below the zone. His FIP of 3.07 tracks close enough to the ERA to confirm this isn't a sequencing story, and his last-three FIP of 1.29 is the best three-start stretch of any pitcher on Monday's slate. Rasmussen has been the reason Tropicana Field has been a difficult place to score in recent weeks.
Tampa Bay is 42-31 and has gone 4-6 in its last ten — a cold team stretch that makes this more of a pitcher-quality play than a team-momentum play. Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda give the Rays their most reliable run producers, and their bullpen FIP of 3.97 holds a full run of edge over Kansas City's 4.98.
Rasmussen's last-three FIP of 1.29 against a Wacha who is trending slightly cold. Both lineups are essentially even, this pick lives and dies on the starter gap, and that gap is significant. Tampa Bay at home with the best recent pitching on the slate.
Rays.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -175
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Pick
Tampa Bay Rays -175
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