Published Jun 20, 8:26pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 20, 8:26pm ET
Shutterstock
Updated Jun 20, 8:26pm ET
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| New York Yankees | -118 |
| Cincinnati Reds | +107 |
While the Reds have been streaky this season and are now struggling to get back to .500 and into contention, it has not been because of Chase Burns. The second-year righty, the 2nd overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, has blossomed into stardom already.
The 23-year-old has a 3.9 bWAR and a 2.01 ERA in 14 starts. Over the course of 80.2 frames, he's allowed 56 hits, 18 earned runs, walked 26, and struck out 95. He's pitched at least 5 innings in every start this year.
At the plate, the Reds are hitting the ball out of the park with good frequency. Sal Stewart has 14 homers; JJ Bleday has 13 in only 47 games; Elly De La Cruz (on the injured list) has 12; and Spencer Steer, who homered in Saturday's victory over the Bombers, has 12.
They are still waiting for Eugenio Suarez to get going. He's batting .213 with only 5 homers.
No Reds batter has ever faced Elmer Rodriguez in the majors.
Elmer Rodriguez returns to the Bronx to make his fourth start of the season. His last appearance in the majors was a 4.1-inning start against the Mets on May 17. He allowed 1 run and 5 hits, though the Bombers ultimately lost the game 7-6.
Overall, he's pitched respectably for a 22-year-old rookie. He has a 0.3 bWAR in 3 starts. Over 13 innings, he's allowed 15 hits and 6 earned runs, walking 9 and striking out 6. The walks are problematic and the lack of strikeouts might be worse. He has yet to allow a home run in the big leagues.
Ben Rice has picked up the slack from the absence of Aaron Judge and more. For the season, he has 21 homers and a .987 OPS. He's contending for the AL Most Valuable Player award. Paul Goldschmidt is batting .291 with a .901 OPS and 12 homers. Cody Bellinger is at .843 with 11 homers.
Jazz Chisholm is slumping again after a brief burst. He does have 11 homers and 21 stolen bases in 25 attempts. Anthony Volpe has been hitting well recently and has a .267 average and a .760 OPS.
Against Burns, Ryan McMahon is 2 for 3 with a home run. Rice is 1 for 3 with a home run. Chisholm is 2 for 2 with 2 singles. Volpe is 1 for 2 with a triple.
Burns has been brilliant all season, but several Yankees bats handled him when they faced him before. Rodriguez remains a question mark as a rookie who is being watched closely by the club. The key here is the Yankees putting up runs against Burns and maximizing what they get from Rodriguez.
Expect Burns to hold down the Bombers' offense and for Cincinnati to knock Rodriguez around to take the win and the series.
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Cincinnati Reds +107
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