Published Jun 18, 8:09pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 18, 8:09pm ET
Updated Jun 18, 8:09pm ET
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| Seattle Mariners | -140 |
| Boston Red Sox | +115 |
Ranger Suarez is 2-3 with a 3.21 ERA. His FIP of 2.88 already indicated he was pitching better than his record, and his last three starts have pushed that further: a 1.25 FIP over that stretch, one of the sharpest three-start runs of any starter in the AL right now. His fastball-changeup combination has been generating weak contact and chases down in the zone, and his walk rate has been negligible over the recent stretch.
The problem is what stands behind him. Boston is 29-42 and has gone 2-8 in its last ten games. Their .694 OPS is near the bottom of the AL, and the Red Sox have failed to generate consistent run support regardless of who is pitching. A Suarez who allows zero runs is still a pitcher who needs his offense to score, and this Boston lineup has not been doing that.
Bryce Miller is 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA. He threw eight innings and struck out seven batters in a 10-2 win over the Nationals on June 12 — the kind of outing that has defined his season. His FIP of 3.01 sits above the ERA, which introduces some regression risk, but his last-three FIP of 2.68 suggests the underlying performance has been solid enough to keep the ERA in range. T-Mobile Park is one of the more pitcher-friendly environments in the AL, and Miller has thrived there all season.
Seattle is 38-37 and has gone 5-5 over its last ten games. Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh anchor the Mariners lineup at a .709 OPS, and the bullpen FIP of 3.61 holds a 0.38-point edge over Boston's 3.99. Seattle is not the hottest team on the board, but they're competing.
Miller at home against a Boston offense that has won two of its last ten games. Suarez has been pitching well, but a pitcher is only as valuable as the runs his team scores behind him. Seattle holds the lineup edge, the bullpen edge, and the home edge.
Mariners.
Pick: Seattle Mariners -140
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Pick
Seattle Mariners -140
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