Published Jun 16, 6:32pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 16, 6:32pm ET
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Updated Jun 16, 6:32pm ET
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| Cincinnati Reds | +110 |
| New York Mets | -121 |
Nolan McLean has been one of the Mets' few trustworthy starters this season. He had consecutive awful starts against the Nationals and these Reds, allowing 13 earned runs in 9 innings. Since then, he's been solid, allowing 4 earned runs in 15 innings.
For the season, the righty has a 3-4 record, a 0.4 bWAR, and a 4.01 ERA. His ERA was blown up by those two terrible starts. In 76.1 innings, he's surrendered 56 hits and 34 earned runs, walking 31 and striking out 88.
The Mets can't find any consistency in any facet. Their hitting has been outright bad apart from Juan Soto, Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing, and perhaps Jared Young. They are waiting for the return of Francisco Lindor from his calf injury.
Mark Vientos, Marcus Semien, Brett Baty, and M.J. Melendez are all batting in the low-.200s. Bo Bichette has been hot recently and has raised his average to .245 with an OPS approaching .670.
Against Nick Lodolo, Semien is 3 for 6 with a home run. Soto is 1 for 3 with a home run. Benge is 1 for 1 with a single. Bichette is 2 for 3 with 2 singles. Ewing is 1 for 3 with a single. Luis Torrens is 1 for 4 with a single.
Nick Lodolo's ERA was blown up by his first 2 starts in which he allowed 9 earned runs in 9.1 innings. Since then, he's been solid enough, though not up to the expectations accompanying a 6'6" lefty taken 7th overall in the MLB Draft.
Overall, he has a 5.21 ERA and a 0.3 bWAR. In 38 innings, he's allowed 40 hits, 22 earned runs, and 8 homers. He's walked 15 and struck out 30. The lefty missed the start of the season with a blister issue.
The Reds have been about as disappointing as the Mets, but they got off to a great start and then started spiraling. Offensively, they have pop, but are feast or famine. Key bats like Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain, Will Benson, and Eugenio Suarez have simply not been productive. Elly De La Cruz has been good, but he's on the injured list with a hamstring strain. JJ Bleday has been a revelation since coming over.
Against McLean, Bleday is 1 for 2 with a home run. Nathaniel Lowe is 1 for 1 with a double and a walk. Stephenson is 1 for 2 with a home run.
The Reds beat up on McLean the last time they faced him and the Mets are still not hitting up to expectations. Lodolo has been good but not great. Against the Mets, that's almost always more than enough.
For this matchup, Cincinnati will take the third game of the series behind their big lefty, sending the Mets reeling again.
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Pick
Cincinnati Reds +110
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