Published Jun 16, 6:28pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 16, 6:28pm ET
Updated Jun 16, 6:28pm ET
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| Washington Nationals | -120 |
| Kansas City Royals | +100 |
Luinder Avila is 1-3 with a 6.19 ERA. The 24-year-old right-hander has shown flashes of the stuff that got him to the majors, but the command and consistency have not followed. His FIP of 5.09 is already poor by any measure, and his last three starts have been worse: an 8.12 FIP that reflects a starter getting hit hard and walking hitters at an unsustainable rate. He has failed to make it through five innings in two of his last three outings.
Kansas City is 29-44 and trending the wrong direction, going 4-6 in its last ten. The Royals' lineup at .693 OPS is the weaker offensive unit in this matchup. Bobby Witt Jr. gives Kansas City its best run-producing threat, but the team has not been generating enough offense to compensate for what Avila has been giving up.
Zack Littell is 6-5 with a 5.32 ERA. The season number is ugly, and earlier in the year it matched the underlying metrics. Something has changed over the last three starts: his FIP over that stretch is 3.94, more than two full points below his season baseline. He has been throwing more strikes, limiting hard contact, and working deeper into games. The ERA has not caught up yet, but the recent performance suggests it's trending in that direction.
Washington is 38-35 and 70% over its last ten. CJ Abrams and Jesse Winker anchor a .745 OPS lineup that has been generating runs consistently. The Nationals' bullpen FIP of 4.97 is roughly even with Kansas City's 5.03, making this a game where the starter gap does most of the work.
Avila with an 8.12 FIP over his last three starts against a Nationals team that is 7-3 in its last ten. Littell's recent form gives Washington a genuine pitching edge at home. The lineup and form edges both point the same direction.
Nationals.
Pick: Washington Nationals -120
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Pick
Washington Nationals -125
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