Published Jun 14, 9:27pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 14, 9:27pm ET
Updated Jun 14, 9:27pm ET
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| Cincinnati Reds | -135 |
| New York Mets | +115 |
obias Myers is 4-5 with a 4.05 ERA and a 4.56 FIP. He has been good enough to keep the Mets in games when his command holds, but the FIP gap between him and Burns is significant. Myers generates outs on soft contact and limits walks, but his pitch profile does not miss bats at the rate that elite starters do. The Mets are 31-39 and have gone 6-4 in their last ten, a fair run for a team that has been below .500 most of the season.
New York's lineup carries a .666 OPS, the thinnest offensive unit in this matchup. Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor provide the Mets' best run-producing options, and Great American Ball Park is not a hitter-friendly environment that compensates for lineup gaps. The Mets also carry the better bullpen in this game, with a 3.58 FIP against Cincinnati's 5.27, which becomes relevant if Burns exits early.
Chase Burns is 7-3 with a 2.14 ERA and a 3.28 FIP. He has faced the Mets before this season, striking out eight in 5.1 innings on May 26, a win for Cincinnati in a series where the Reds took two of three. His last-three FIP of 2.73 is consistent with a season that has not been built on luck. Burns commands three pitches, generates whiffs on his fastball up in the zone, and has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts.
The Reds are 33-36 and 2-8 in their last ten, a cold stretch that makes this a team-quality lean rather than a team-form lean. Cincinnati's home record at Great American Ball Park has been decent, and their lineup at .705 OPS edges New York's .666. Tyler Stephenson and Elly De La Cruz give the Reds their most productive lineup options.
Burns against a Mets lineup hitting .666 OPS in a park that does not help hitters. The ERA and FIP both confirm the edge, and Burns has beaten this lineup before this season. New York's bullpen advantage is real but secondary when the starter gap is this wide.
Reds.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds -135
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Pick
Cincinnati Reds -135
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