Published Jun 11, 5:58pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 11, 5:58pm ET
Updated Jun 11, 5:58pm ET
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| Baltimore Orioles | -140 |
| San Diego Padres | +120 |
Griffin Canning is 0-4 with a 6.34 ERA. He came to San Diego on a veteran deal that was supposed to give A.J. Preller's pitching-first roster another reliable arm. The results have been the opposite. His FIP sits at 5.08, confirming this is not a sequencing problem. His last three starts produced a FIP of 5.85. He has given up three or more earned runs in six of his ten appearances this season, and the Padres have dropped four consecutive series before recently bouncing back against the Reds.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado anchor the San Diego lineup. The Padres can score runs; they've just been asking their pitching staff to overcome an offense that has struggled to be consistent in stretches. Tonight, Canning is asking a lot of everyone.
Shane Baz is 3-6 with a 4.09 ERA, and the record obscures what has been happening over the last month. He has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last four starts, including one-run performances in three of them. His FIP for the season is 4.03, but his last-three FIP of 2.74 says the underlying performance has turned a corner. Baltimore gave up four prospects to acquire him from Tampa Bay in December because they believe in his ceiling, and right now that ceiling is starting to show.
The Orioles are at home with Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Anthony Santander giving Baltimore a lineup that punishes mistake pitches. Their bullpen ranks among the better units in the AL. Against a pitcher in Canning's current form, that combination tends to produce runs early.
Baz with a last-three FIP of 2.74 against a Canning whose FIP hasn't cleared 5.00 in two months. Baltimore gets the pitching edge, the lineup edge, and the home edge in the same game.
Orioles.
Pick: Baltimore Orioles -140
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Pick
Baltimore Orioles -140
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