Published Jun 5, 4:44pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 5, 4:44pm ET
Updated Jun 5, 4:44pm ET
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| Chicago Cubs | -140 |
| San Francisco Giants | +120 |
Landen Roupp is 5-6 with a 4.22 ERA. He came into this season with a strong June 1 showing against Milwaukee, but the underlying trend has moved in the wrong direction over his last several starts. The ERA reflects a pitcher who has given up more hard contact than his stuff justifies, and going to Wrigley against a Cubs lineup that has been productive at home does not improve the environment.
https://youtu.be/d5pQFTs0dZs?si=LjtaqvIgHOQuTOouSan Francisco is 25-38. The offense has not been able to score behind him consistently, and the Giants have lost nine of their last eleven. Roupp needs to be sharp to give his team a chance in most games right now.
Ben Brown is 2-2 with a 1.92 ERA. He did not make his first start until May, but since joining Chicago's rotation he has been the most effective pitcher in the group. His ERA over his last five starts is 1.73. The contact quality has been clean, the command has been there, and the Cubs have been getting wins when he pitches.
The 1.92 ERA is not luck; Brown has been doing the work that produces those results. He is pitching at home in front of a Chicago lineup that has been putting up runs at Wrigley all season. Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger give the Cubs their most reliable offensive contributors.
Brown's ERA is 1.92. Roupp's is 4.22. Chicago is at home. San Francisco is one of the worst teams in baseball by record.
The counterargument worth naming: SF has won their last five against this Cubs team. Matchup history is real. But a pitcher with a 4.22 ERA going to Wrigley against one with a 1.92 ERA is the more relevant number when picking a side.
Cubs at home. Brown on the mound.
Pick: Chicago Cubs -140
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Pick
Chicago Cubs -140
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