Published Jun 1, 9:56pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 1, 9:56pm ET
Updated Jun 1, 9:56pm ET
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| St. Louis Cardinals | +108 |
| Texas Rangers | -113 |
Nathan Eovaldi is 5-6 with a 3.93 ERA. He has been excellent lately, covering at least seven innings in each of his last four starts and allowing just four runs across 29 innings in that stretch. The workload has been there. The surface results have been genuinely good.
His FIP has been running about 0.65 runs above his ERA all season, which means some of that recent success has rested on sequencing and batted ball luck. He is still a quality veteran arm, but the ERA has been running a little ahead of what the underlying contact quality says he has earned.
No Cardinals batter has faced Eovaldi entering this series, which adds an early-innings uncertainty element for St. Louis.
Dustin May is 3-6 with a 4.57 ERA on the season. His FIP over his last three starts is 2.65. That gap is the pick here. The ERA and record reflect a rough stretch earlier this year; what he has been doing lately is substantially better than those numbers show. He is inducing weak contact, keeping the ball down, and getting through lineups with fewer baserunners than his season average suggests.
His last outing was six innings against the Dodgers (his former team), where he held them to three runs. The Cardinals' bullpen holds a FIP advantage over Texas coming into Tuesday. Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera give St. Louis its most productive bats at home.
May's recent FIP is 2.65. Eovaldi's ERA has been outrunning his FIP all season. St. Louis has the bullpen edge and the home field in a game the market has priced as near-even.
Near-even money on the team with the better recent arm at home is the right side.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals +108
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Pick
St. Louis Cardinals +108
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