Published May 25, 9:47am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 25, 9:47am ET
Updated May 25, 9:47am ET
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| Pittsburgh Pirates | +105 |
| Chicago Cubs | -126 |
Ben Brown's ERA is 0.84. His FIP is 1.65. Both numbers are legitimate; nothing in his peripherals suggests the surface results are borrowed. He is striking hitters out, limiting walks, and generating weak contact at a rate that makes a sub-1.00 ERA look earned rather than lucky. He has been the Cubs' most reliable arm since May began and he carries that into a Pittsburgh lineup that has been one of the quieter offenses in the NL Central.
Ian Happ and Alex Bregman give the Cubs genuine threats in the middle. The lineup has been scoring consistently through May and is capable of backing Brown with the kind of early lead that lets him work from ahead.
Carmen Mlodzinski is 3.96 ERA with a 3.05 FIP this season. He has been on the wrong side of sequencing. He is a workable mid-rotation starter, and on a different night against a pitcher with different numbers, this would be a close game.
Tonight is not that night. Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz give Pittsburgh their best offensive weapons, and the Pirates have enough talent to scratch runs together against almost anyone. But almost anyone is not Ben Brown.
Brown has a 0.84 ERA and a 1.65 FIP. Mlodzinski has a 3.96 ERA, and even his FIP (3.05) is nearly 1.40 worse than Brown's. The Cubs are laying -126 with the most dominant pitcher on the board today going for them. That is not a steep price. That is a fair price for what is on the mound. Chicago wins this game.
Pick: Chicago Cubs -126
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Pick
Chicago Cubs -126
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