Published May 24, 10:49am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 24, 10:49am ET
Updated May 24, 10:49am ET
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| Toronto Blue Jays | -171 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | +141 |
Mitch Keller has a 3.57 FIP this season, a legitimate mid-rotation number for a Pittsburgh team that has needed innings from him. He has not been a liability, and on a different day against a different lineup, this would be a reasonable spot. The problem is the pitcher across the diamond has a 2.37 FIP, which is one of the better marks in the American League right now, and the Blue Jays' lineup has been one of the hotter offenses in the division over the past two weeks.
Pittsburgh is 3-7 in their last ten. Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz have been the offensive anchors. They are hitters capable of making any start competitive — but the team has not been putting it together consistently enough to win at the rate the lineup would suggest.
Dylan Cease's FIP is 2.37. His ERA has tracked close to it, and the profile backing up that number is everything scouts wanted when Toronto acquired him — elite strikeout rate, limited walks, and the ability to go deep into games without his stuff fading. He has been one of the most reliable arms in the AL East and tonight he pitches at home for a Blue Jays team that has won seven of its last ten.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads a Toronto lineup that has been clicking throughout May. The Blue Jays have the depth in the middle of the order to put pressure on a pitcher from the second at-bat forward, and at Rogers Centre they have been a team that punishes starters early.
The FIP gap here is 1.20 runs. Toronto is 7-3 in its last 10, while Pittsburgh is 3-7. The Blue Jays have the elite arm, the hotter lineup, and the home environment.
Yes, -171 is steep. The matchup justifies it. When the best pitcher on the board starts for the hotter team at home against a squad that has won three of its last ten, the price finds its level. Cease tonight.
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -171
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Pick
Toronto Blue Jays -171
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