Published May 24, 10:40am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 24, 10:40am ET
Updated May 24, 10:40am ET
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| Philadelphia Phillies | +105 |
| Cleveland Guardians | -126 |
Parker Messick is 2.45 ERA on the season. His FIP is 3.22, which means the ERA has been running ahead of the underlying numbers. He has been genuinely good, not just lucky, but the gap between those two figures is something to keep in mind at a park like Citizens Bank, where the dimensions and atmosphere tend to punish pitchers who miss spots.
Jose Ramirez remains Cleveland's most dangerous bat, and the Guardians have been running at the kind of pace that makes road trips to tough environments feel manageable. Messick just needs to give them six innings and let the lineup handle the rest.
Andrew Painter has a 5.77 ERA and a 4.64 FIP. The ERA is bad; the FIP is also bad — which matters because Citizens Bank already inflates ERA for pitchers who work there. Even stripping out the park factor, Painter's underlying contact and walk numbers are concerning. This is not a sequencing story or a defense story. He has been getting hit.
Philadelphia's lineup has the firepower to make any game close, and the home crowd at Citizens Bank is one of the loudest environments in the NL. The Phillies are capable of winning this game. The starting pitching spot has been the liability.
Painter's ERA and FIP are both bad in a park that is already unkind to pitchers. Messick has been one of the more reliable starters in the AL, and Cleveland has won eight of their last ten. At -126, Cleveland is a reasonable favorite. The form and the pitching both point the same direction. Guardians.
Pick: Cleveland Guardians -126
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Pick
Cleveland Guardians -126
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