Published May 20, 2:43am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 20, 2:43am ET
Updated May 20, 2:44am ET
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| Colorado Rockies | +113 |
| Texas Rangers | -136 |
Jack Leiter's FIP is 4.42. His ERA has been worse than that, meaning he has pitched to better underlying contact numbers than the box scores have captured. At Coors Field that matters more than at most parks — altitude inflates everything, from batting averages to ERA to raw run totals, and a pitcher who has been getting unlucky with balls in play will find some of that bad luck amplified in Denver. Leiter will give up runs tonight. Every pitcher at Coors gives up runs. The question is whether it is manageable enough for Texas to win.
The Rangers are 6-4 in their last ten and have been one of the more consistent teams in the AL West during that stretch. Corey Seager and Josh Jung give the lineup genuine middle-of-the-order production, and at Coors Field, lineups on both sides tend to generate more than the pitching matchup would predict. The Rangers have scored runs in road games this month at a rate that makes them dangerous in a park that plays to the offense's advantage.
Kyle Freeland has a 7.22 ERA and a 5.44 FIP. The 7.22 is at Coors, which always needs context. The altitude boosts the ERA of every pitcher in that rotation regardless of how they are actually throwing. That context does not rescue the 5.44 FIP, though. FIP strips out defense and park factors to the extent possible, and 5.44 for a home pitcher means the underlying contact has been genuinely problematic. He has not been an unlucky pitcher with a bad number, he has been a struggling pitcher whose ERA happens to look even worse because of where he works.
Colorado is 3-7 in their last ten and the offense has not compensated for what the starting rotation has given back. Mickey Moniak and Elehuris Montero have had stretches where they have contributed runs, but at 3-7 the team has not been putting full games together. Coors will keep the Rockies lineup in this game regardless of what Leiter does.
Freeland's FIP at 5.44 confirms the 7.22 ERA is not all Coors — he has been bad regardless of the park factor. Leiter's 4.42 FIP gives Texas the pitching edge, the Rangers have won six of ten, and the price at -136 is fair for what the matchup shows. Coors adds unpredictability to every game played there. It does not change which side the data favors.
Pick: Texas Rangers -136
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Pick
Texas Rangers -136
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