Kevin Gausman's ERA is 3.45 and his FIP is 3.13. The FIP running below the ERA is the unusual direction. Hitters are not squaring him up. His strikeout rate is holding, his walk rate has stayed manageable, and the batted ball profile has been among the cleaner ones in the American League East. The 3.45 ERA is already a good number. The 3.13 FIP says it has actually been a little unkind to how well he has been throwing.

Spencer Arrighetti's ERA is 1.50. His FIP is 3.65. That is a gap of 2.15 runs, which is one of the larger ERA-FIP discrepancies in the league right now and indicates that his results have benefited significantly from strand rates and sequencing luck. He has not been a 1.50 ERA pitcher. He has been a 3.65 FIP pitcher who has gotten the outcomes to break his way at a rate that will not hold through an entire season. The ERA is going to climb. The FIP is the more honest number.

Myers is 3.41 ERA with a 4.43 FIP. His ERA has run ahead of what his underlying stuff has warranted. Hitters have been making contact at a rate that should produce more runs than the surface number shows, which means the 3.41 has required some help from strand rates and sequencing to hold. He is not a bad pitcher. He is a pitcher whose results have been slightly more flattering than the process deserves. In a game where the opposing starter is running the same story, the distinction between the two becomes the tiebreaker.

The Dodgers have won 7 of 8 after an uncharacteristic 4-game losing streak. The last three games were against their top challenger in the NL West, the Padres. They won 2 of 3.

The Rays got off to a sluggish start this season, but have been blazing since they fell to 5-7 after 12 games. They've won 15 of their last 18. Now, they're in 1st place in the AL East and swept the St. Petersburg in Tampa earlier this season.

David Peterson's ERA is 5.40. His FIP is 3.01. That is a gap of nearly two and a half runs, and it tells the story of a pitcher who has been getting results far worse than his underlying contact numbers deserve. He has been generating outs and limiting hard contact at a rate that should produce a significantly lower ERA, but the damage has accumulated through sequencing and strand rates that have consistently broken against him. Peterson is not a 5.40 ERA pitcher. He is closer to the FIP.

Braydon Fisher is not a name that generates attention in the American League East, but his FIP is 3.68 and his numbers have been consistent all season. He works efficiently, commands his fastball to both sides of the plate, and has not had the blow-up start that derails a pitcher's ERA in a single outing. Toronto has asked him to be reliable mid-rotation depth, and he has been exactly that. Against the Yankees' lineup, which is the most dangerous part of tonight's equation, Fisher needs to work ahead in counts and keep the ball out of the air at Yankee Stadium.

Spencer Strider is 2.45 ERA since his return from the oblique strain, and the results have been everything Atlanta needed when they activated him. He strikes out batters at a rate that belongs in the top percentile of the league, and his velocity has held up through multiple outings since returning. The FIP is 3.63, which runs about 1.18 runs above his ERA — not a disqualifying gap, but enough to indicate that strand rates and sequencing have been working in his favor alongside the genuine quality in his starts.

The Pirates need to get back on track after a recent tough stretch. They had a solid start after spending some money over the winter to bolster a solid, young starting rotation. But with perpetual losers like the Pirates, there's a lingering fear they will come undone and plummet back into last place.

Every season, the Guardians find a way to stay in contention no matter what challenges they face. After a mediocre start, they've gotten hot in May and vaulted to 1st place in the AL Central.

Jack Leiter's FIP is 4.42. His ERA has been worse than that, meaning he has pitched to better underlying contact numbers than the box scores have captured. At Coors Field that matters more than at most parks — altitude inflates everything, from batting averages to ERA to raw run totals, and a pitcher who has been getting unlucky with balls in play will find some of that bad luck amplified in Denver. Leiter will give up runs tonight. Every pitcher at Coors gives up runs. The question is whether it is manageable enough for Texas to win.

Kyle Harrison is 2.09 ERA with a 2.92 FIP, and both numbers belong to the same pitcher. The FIP is a full run higher than the ERA, which means there is a modest luck element in the results — but a 2.92 FIP is still elite territory, and Harrison has earned the reputation he has built this season. He strikes out batters at a high rate, keeps the ball in the park, and gives Milwaukee six or seven innings on a consistent basis. The Cubs are getting the better arm tonight by the numbers that matter most.