Published May 22, 8:36am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 22, 8:36am ET
Updated May 22, 8:42am ET
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| Pittsburgh Pirates | +138 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | -167 |
Kevin Gausman's ERA is 3.45 and his FIP is 3.13. The FIP running below the ERA is the unusual direction. Hitters are not squaring him up. His strikeout rate is holding, his walk rate has stayed manageable, and the batted ball profile has been among the cleaner ones in the American League East. The 3.45 ERA is already a good number. The 3.13 FIP says it has actually been a little unkind to how well he has been throwing.
The Blue Jays lineup has the depth to back up what Gausman gives them. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been consistently productive in the middle of the order, and the offense has been reliable enough across the lineup that a good starting pitching performance typically produces wins rather than just competitive losses. Toronto has been one of the better road teams in the league this month, which is why -167 at PNC Park carries less sticker shock than the number alone suggests.
Chandler has a 5.14 ERA and a 5.89 FIP. The FIP being worse than the ERA is the version of this story where the pitcher is not even getting luck on his side. He has been allowing hard contact consistently, giving up walk totals that put runners on base for hitters who have been making use of it, and the FIP confirms that the ERA has actually understated the problem. There is no ERA-FIP argument to make here that helps Pittsburgh.
The Pirates lineup has produced enough to stay competitive in some games this year, but tonight they face a pitcher who has been one of the better starters in the AL East by every available metric. Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz give Pittsburgh genuine threats in the middle of the order, hitters capable of keeping the game close if Chandler can limit damage. That is a lot to ask from a starter whose FIP is nearly six.
Gausman's ERA understates how well he has pitched. At -167, it is steep, but the matchup earns it. They have the better pitcher and offense.
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -167
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Pick
Toronto Blue Jays -167
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