Published Jun 3, 8:51pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 3, 8:51pm ET
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Updated Jun 3, 8:51pm ET
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| Boston Red Sox | -117 |
| Baltimore Orioles | +106 |
Trevor Rogers has long been a top talent who has never been able to put it together. The Marlins gave up on him despite taking him 13th overall in the 2017 MLB Draft
He started well this season. In his first three starts, he allowed 4 earned runs in 19 innings. Since then, he's been awful. Now, his ERA is at 6.84, and he has a -0.8 bWAR. In 48.2 innings, he's allowed 58 hits and 37 earned runs, walking 18 and striking out 38
The Orioles have played better after a shaky start and are now closing in on .500.
At the plate, Pete Alonso is finding his groove after getting comfortable in his new uniform. His OPS is approaching .800 and he's hitting for power. Gunnar Henderson is hitting the ball out of the park, but his OPS is below .700. Samuel Basallo has had an excellent year with an OPS approaching .850.
Against BoSox starter Brayan Bello, Henderson is 7 for 22 with 3 doubles and 2 homers. Adley Rutschman is 4 for 18 with a double and 2 homers. Taylor Ward is 4 for 10 with 4 singles. Leody Taveras is 3 for 4 with 3 singles. Basallo is 2 for 5 with a double and a home run. Alonso is 1 for 5 with a single and a walk.
Brayan Bello's overall numbers look worse than they are when taken game-by-game because he's had several atrocious appearances, including allowing 13 hits and 8 earned runs against the Orioles in April, and allowing 7 earned runs in 5 innings against the Braves.
His last two starts have been solid, particularly the previous start against the Guardians in which he allowed 4 hits and no runs in 7 innings, issuing no walks and striking out 5.
For the season, he has a -1.1 bWAR and a 5.63 ERA. He's made 7 starts and 4 relief appearances, allowing 71 hits in 56 innings, surrendering 35 earned runs and 10 homers, walking 21 and striking out 40.
Boston has not fared much better under interim manager Chad Tracy than it did under the fired Alex Cora.
They've shown some signs of life on offense recently. Jarren Duran's average is creeping up and he's reached double-digits in home runs. Getting Duran going will be a relief for a club that has relied on Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela, and no one else. Caleb Durbin has also been hitting better, though he's still below .200.
Boston has not had much success against Rogers. Durbin is 1 for 1 with a double. Andruw Monasterio is 2 for 3 with a double. Masataka Yoshida is 2 for 2 with 2 singles. Duran is 0 for 8. Rafaela is 1 for 8 with a single. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is 2 for 3 with 2 singles.
Neither pitcher has been particularly good this season, but Bello's struggles have been more intermittent than Rogers'. Boston is starting to hit and is due for an eventual hot streak.
This is a good opportunity for the Red Sox to put some runs on the board and for Bello to string together another solid start. The BoSox will knock Rogers around and take this one behind their talented but scuffling young righty.
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Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+160)
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