Published Jun 3, 7:10pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 3, 7:10pm ET
Updated Jun 3, 7:10pm ET
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| Houston Astros | -112 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | -108 |
Jared Jones is 0-0 with a 10.38 ERA in his first two starts since returning from Tommy John surgery. The velocity has been there; the command and sequencing have not. In his last start against Minnesota, he gave up five runs on seven hits in 4.1 innings, served up two home runs, and walked two batters. Jones is 24 years old with legitimate front-of-rotation upside, and none of that changes the fact that he is actively working out the rust from more than a year away from game action.
Pittsburgh is 32-28 overall and pushing for a postseason spot. The offense has been productive — Bobby Witt Jr. and Oneil Cruz give the Pirates genuine run-scoring ability. They will need to supply an early lead if Jones is going to hold up through the middle innings.
Kai-Wei Teng is 3-3 with a 2.57 ERA and 43 strikeouts. He has been the most consistent starter in a Houston rotation missing Hunter Brown, Lance McCullers Jr., and Cristian Javier to injury. The results have held up over multiple starts, and the strikeout rate supports a pitcher who is not simply surviving on soft contact and favorable sequencing.
Houston is 27-34, a team carrying the weight of a depleted roster, but Teng has kept them competitive in his starts. Yordan Alvarez is the centerpiece of an offense that can still generate runs even without Altuve and Correa available.
The market has this near pick-em, which is reasonable, Pittsburgh is the better team by record and Jones was excellent in 2024 before the injury. But Jones is not that pitcher tonight. He is two starts into a comeback from Tommy John, and a pitcher posting a 10.38 ERA is a genuine liability regardless of the reason.
Teng's 2.57 ERA at home against a Pittsburgh starter in full rust mode is the pick. Houston.
Pick: Houston Astros -112
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Pick
Houston Astros -112
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