Published May 26, 10:00am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 26, 10:00am ET
Updated May 26, 10:00am ET
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| Toronto Blue Jays | -149 |
| Miami Marlins | +124 |
Sandy Alcantara is 4.00 ERA with a 3.80 FIP. The FIP running below the ERA is the less common direction, which means his underlying contact numbers have been slightly better than the surface results. He has been pitching to a level where sequencing and strand rates have cost him more than they have helped. Alcantara has been one of the more reliable starters on the Miami staff this season and gives the Marlins a legitimate anchor tonight.
James Wood leads a lineup that carries a .700 OPS, 22 points above what the Blue Jays are bringing. Miami has the lineup edge in this game despite being the visiting underdog, and Alcantara gives them the length to let that lineup stay in it through six or seven innings.
Braydon Fisher is 2.73 ERA with a 3.35 FIP. His ERA has been running ahead of his underlying numbers, the same story as most of the pitchers on his staff this month. The 2.73 is a level that supports the market price in Toronto; the 3.35 suggests some correction may be coming. He has been effective, commands his fastball to both sides of the plate, and Rogers Centre has been a good home environment for him. The Blue Jays' lineup at .678 OPS has not been the offensive force the roster suggested it would be.
The market makes Toronto a -149 favorite. Miami has the lineup edge, Alcantara's FIP is cleaner than his ERA, and Fisher has been running above where his underlying numbers say he should be. At +124, the Marlins do not need to be right every time on a play like this; they need to be right often enough. The pitching gap favors Miami when you look past the ERA line, and the lineup gap already does. This is the value side of the board tonight.
Pick: Miami Marlins +124
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Pick
Miami Marlins +124
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