Published May 17, 8:17pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 17, 8:17pm ET
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Updated May 17, 8:17pm ET
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| New York Yankees | -190 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | +171 |
As they try to get back to the World Series and win this time, the Blue Jays have stumbled out of the gate. They sit at 21-25, dealing with injuries and underperformance from key players.
In their first matchup with the Yankees since they beat them in the 2025 ALDS, they start veteran lefty Patrick Corbin.
Corbin has pitched surprisingly well, particularly in the context of his past few seasons when he's been one of the worst pitchers in baseball. For the Blue Jays Corbin has only allowed more than 3 runs in a game once this season.
Overall, he has a 3.93 ERA. In 34.1 innings, he's allowed 38 hits and 15 earned runs, walking 10 and striking out 22.
At the plate, Kazuma Okamoto, in his first season in MLB, has a .767 OPS and 10 homers. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a .754 OPS and only 3 homers. He's due for a hot streak. George Springer is batting .186 with 2 homers.
Louis Varland has been excellent since taking over for Jeff Hoffman as closer. He has an overall ERA of 0.38 and 34 K's in 23.2 innings.
Against Yankees starter Ryan Weathers, Andres Gimenez is 1 for 3 with a single. Myles Straw is 1 for 1 with a single. Guerrero is 0 for 2 with a walk and a strikeout. Ernie Clement is 0 for 3.
It wasn't just that the Yankees lost 2 of 3 to the crosstown Mets, but the rubber game was torturous. They had a 3-run lead in the bottom of the 9th with 2 outs and closer David Bednar on the mound. The Mets rallied for 3 on Tyrone Taylor's home run, then won it in the 10th when the Yankees decided to use a bizarre configuration of a 5-man infield when the Mets had the winning run on 3rd with 1 out.
Now, they face the rival Blue Jays and send Ryan Weathers to the hill.
Apart from bad starts against the Angels and Marlins, Weathers has been excellent in his first season in pinstripes. In his last start, he held the Orioles to 1 hit and 2 earned runs in 6.1 innings. For the season, he has a 3.00 ERA in 45 innings, allowing 37 hits and 15 earned runs, walking 13 and striking out 54. He's allowed 6 home runs.
Ben Rice continues to rake with a 1.077 OPS and 15 homers. The Mets held Aaron Judge in check and his OPS is now lower than 1.000.
Trent Grisham's batting average is down to .166. Jazz Chisholm had a good series against the Mets and his average is up to .230. Anthony Volpe was productive against the Mets, drawing walks and playing good defense. He's 2 for 9 since coming back to the majors and taking over shortstop for the injured Jose Caballero.
For New York against Corbin, Chisholm is 2 for 8 with a triple and a home run. Paul Goldschmidt is 6 for 17 with 2 doubles and a home run. Judge is 3 for 12 with a double and a home run. Ryan McMahon, of all people, is 7 for 19 with a double. Amed Rosario is 5 for 37, but he has 2 doubles and 2 homers. Volpe is 0 for 8.
Corbin might be having what looks like a comeback season, but his FIP is similar to what it's been in the past few years. The Yankees have handled him very well in the past and they will do the same here.
Weathers has been very solid so far this season and this is an important game for the Yankees to try and get back on track against a division opponent.
New York will win the game easily by at least 2 runs.
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Pick
New York Yankees -1.5 (+105)
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