Royals vs Astros Pick: Houston Sends Valdez to Face Hot KC (May 13)

• Our Royals vs Astros pick looks at Kansas City with Kris Bubic visiting Houston, starting Framber Valdez
• Houston has been treading water all season, hoping to make another run with its remaining championship core
• Kansas City got off to a slow start, but has been blazing hot since
• Both teams are trailing in their divisions

KC Has Rebounded From Its 8-14 Start

The Royals made a surprising run to the postseason in 2024, one year after losing 106 games. In 2025, they started by losing 14 of their first 22 games, leading to questions about whether it was a fluke. Since then, they have been one of the better teams in MLB.

As they play the second game of their series in Houston, Kris Bubic takes the mound. The lefty is having an All-Star season with a 4-2 record and a 1.69 ERA. He has amassed a 1.9 bWAR, given up 39 hits in 48 innings, walked 14, and struck out 47.

In his last two starts, he has thrown 12 innings, given up 10 hits, and no runs.

For the Astros against Bubic, Jose Altuve is 1 for 5 with a home run. Chas McCormick is 2 for 4 with a double. Isaac Paredes is 3 for 10 with a double.

The Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr. is having another MVP-caliber season with a batting average over .300, leading MLB in doubles, and stealing bases. He’s already at a 2.6 bWAR.

Unfortunately, the rest of the batting order is not hitting. Offseason trade acquisition Jonathan India is batting in the .220s; Hunter Renfroe is well below .200 and has a -1.6 bWAR. Even captain Salvador Perez isn’t hitting with his usual power.

Houston Hopes Valdez Can Help Them Gain Consistency

Over the past five years, Framber Valdez has been one of baseball’s top starters. In 2025, he has a 3.94 ERA. That, however, is misleading. He has had two poor starts in which he surrendered 12 earned runs in 9 innings. Aside from that, he’s been consistently good. In his last start in Milwaukee against the Brewers, he threw 7 innings, gave up 3 hits, and 1 earned run. He struck out 7. 

Against Valdez, the Royals’ Cavan Biggio is 2 for 7 with a home run. Mark Canha is 5 for 22. Vinnie Pasquantino is 1 for 3 with a home run. Perez is 1 for 10 with a home run. Witt is 2 for 16 with a double and a triple.

Six Astros’ regulars have an OPS below .700. Of particular concern is Yordan Alvarez, whose batting average is dwindling toward .200. He is not hitting for his customary power.

Royals vs Astros Pick: Bubic Will Keep Up His Stellar Pitching

The Astros are not hitting up to their capabilities, and Bubic has been brilliant all season long. That does not suggest that the Royals have been hitting themselves, but several of their batters have handled Valdez in the past, and they will score enough to get the win.