The Mets (89-73) spent a manic 24 hours just to make the postseason. They played the Brewers (93-69) in a three-game series this past weekend.
They return to Milwaukee after a day trip to Atlanta and will play the National League Central champs in the Wild Card round.
Our pick for Game 1 between the Mets vs. Brewers is the Brewers run line -1.5 (+160).
Rested Brewers Are Favored in Game 1
| Team | Run Line | Money Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | +1.5 (-180) | +129 | O 7.5 (-105) |
| Brewers | -1.5 (+160) | -140 | U 7.5 (-115) |
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Pitching Matchup Favors Brewers
Luis Severino (11-7, 3.91 ERA, 166 hits allowed in 182 innings) starts for the visiting Mets. The Brewers counter with their top starter Freddy Peralta (11-9, 3.68 ERA, 200 strikeouts in 173.2 innings).
The obstacles for the Mets are multi-layered, but not insurmountable. They needed to go all out to make the playoffs with a frenzied comeback against the arch-rival Braves. Mets closer Edwin Diaz threw 66 pitches over two days making it exceedingly unlikely that he will be available to pitch in Game 1.
The Brewers won five of the six meetings with the Mets in 2024, but played close games in most of them. They ran wild on the bases against New York, stealing 17 bases without getting caught once. The Mets need to decide if they want to start light-hitting catcher Luis Torrens to mitigate the Brewers’ running game and if they will use Francisco Alvarez as the designated hitter or not.
Milwaukee’s bats have solid numbers against Severino, but have not faced him in the postseason yet. Willy Adames is 4 for 11 with 1 home run and a double and Jake Bauers is 3 for 9 with a double and a home run. Mets nemesis Rhys Hoskins is 3 for 6 with a home run and 4 RBI.
Against Peralta, Jesse Winker is the only Mets player with any extended success (6 for 18 with 2 doubles and 2 home runs).
Mets vs. Brewers Prediction: Milwaukee Run Line
The Brewers dominated the Mets number all season and with New York having exhausted their reserves to reach the playoffs, they’ll be hoping to bluff their way through in Game 1 and steal it. It is difficult to see that happening given how reality is stacked against them, and how exhausted they must be. At least in the first game of the Wild Card Series, we’ll take the Brewers.
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Pick
Brewers Run Line -1.5 (+160)
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