Published Jun 21, 8:34pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 21, 8:34pm ET
Shutterstock
Updated Jun 21, 8:34pm ET
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| Detroit Tigers | +113 |
| New York Yankees | -125 |
Gerrit Cole has been very good in 5 starts since returning from Tommy John surgery. He already has a 0.9 bWAR and a 2-1 record with a 2.57 ERA. The Yankees have been moderately cautious, knowing they will need him in October more than they need him now.
He's thrown 28 innings, allowed 20 hits and 8 earned runs, walking 8 and striking out 24. Cole has surrendered 4 home runs.
New York just lost 2 of 3 to the Reds at Yankee Stadium and needs to get back on track against struggling Detroit.
Ben Rice's OPS is back over 1.000 at 1.004. He, Paul Goldschmidt, and Cody Bellinger are carrying the team's offense in the absence of Aaron Judge. The rest of the offense has been unproductive. It is a weakness that needs to be addressed at the trade deadline.
For the Yankees against Framber Valdez, Jose Caballero is 6 for 13 with 2 doubles and a home run. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is 2 for 5 with a home run. Amed Rosario is 1 for 9 with a home run. Bellinger is 4 for 12 with 4 singles. Anthony Volpe is 1 for 7 with a single.
Framber Valdez has pitched at least 5 innings in his last 7 starts. The lefty was a perennial Cy Young Award contender and one of the better pitchers in MLB for most of his time with the Astros. In his first season in Detroit, Valdez has been reliable, but his ERA was blown up by two poor starts in which he allowed a combined 15 earned runs in 8 innings.
For the season, he has a 1.0 bWAR and a 4.09 ERA. In 83.2 innings, he's allowed 81 hits, 9 homers, and 38 earned runs, walking 32 and striking out 67. His strikeouts this season are down, but he's been in line with his normal career numbers.
The Tigers are still within striking distance of the top of the AL Central, but they need to start winning some games.
Dillon Dingler is their surprise leader in home runs and OPS at 18 and .884, respectively. Spencer Torkelson has 12 homers and a .208 batting average. Kerry Carpenter is at .225 with 10 homers. Riley Greene is having an excellent season with a .290 average, 8 homers, and an .815 OPS. Kevin McGonigle is batting .283 with 6 homers and 9 stolen bases without being caught. Matt Vierling is batting .200.
Against Cole, Jake Rogers is 1 for 10 with a home run. Torkelson is 2 for 9 with a home run. Vierling is 2 for 5 with 2 singles. Carpenter is 4 for 9 with a triple. Greene is 0 for 2 with a walk.
Valdez is always a tough assignment and has experience against the Yankees. Cole has been very good since returning. This game will come down to offense. New York is relying on three or four consistently productive hitters. Detroit has been generally bad offensively with occasional power.
Expect a close, low-scoring affair with New York riding Cole and its bullpen to come out on top in the first game of the series.
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Detroit Tigers +1.5 (-157)
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