Published Jun 16, 6:48pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 16, 6:48pm ET
Updated Jun 16, 6:48pm ET
|
|
|---|---|
| New York Yankees | -170 |
| Chicago White Sox | +140 |
Anthony Kay is 6-1 with a 4.34 ERA. The record flatters him. His FIP of 5.28 and last-three FIP of 5.22 tell a consistent story: hitters have been making hard contact against him all season, and the ERA has been held down by factors that tend to correct over time. Kay works off a fastball-changeup combination that plays well against lineups that chase, but the Yankees have been one of the more disciplined offensive units in the AL this season. His 6-1 record reflects strong run support from a Chicago lineup that has been productive recently.
The White Sox are 38-32 and 6-4 in their last ten, showing real competitive form. Their lineup carries a .737 OPS, which is a capable offensive unit. But asking Kay to carry a game at Yankee Stadium against this lineup is a taller order than his win-loss record suggests.
Carlos Rodón is 2-2 with a 3.19 ERA and a 3.73 FIP. His last-three FIP of 4.04 shows a slight tick up from his season baseline, but 4.04 against a White Sox lineup hitting .737 OPS is a workable number for a pitcher with his profile. Rodón works off a fastball-slider mix that generates weak contact from left-handed hitters, and the Yankees have won four of his last five starts. His 3.19 ERA is the most reliable number in this game.
New York is 43-27 and 7-3 in its last ten, one of the better teams in the AL right now. Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Cody Bellinger give the Yankees two of their most dangerous offensive contributors, and the home crowd at Yankee Stadium has been a factor all season. The Yankees' bullpen FIP of 3.61 is the stronger backend unit, holding a 0.75 FIP edge over Chicago's 4.36.
Rodón at home against a Kay whose FIP has been above 5.00 all season. New York holds the lineup edge, the bullpen edge, and the form edge. The gap between these starters is real and has been consistent.
Yankees.
Pick: New York Yankees -170
|
Pick
New York Yankees -170
|
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000
|
