Published Jun 17, 7:46pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 17, 7:46pm ET
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Updated Jun 17, 7:46pm ET
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| Kansas City Royals | -115 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | +104 |
The Cardinals are one of MLB's surprises as they are fighting to stay within striking distance of the NL Central-leading Brewers. They are in playoff position.
Still, they need to get more from lefty Matthew Liberatore or they need to boost their starting rotation. Perhaps both. He has been up and down for much of the season. At times, he's very good. However, in his last two starts, he has allowed 7 earned runs in 8.2 innings against the Reds and Twins.
For the season, he has a 4.71 ERA in 14 starts. Over 70.2 innings, he's surrendered 79 hits and 37 earned runs. He's given up 14 homers, walked 27, and struck out 65.
At the plate, Jordan Walker's batting average is dropping. It's down to .288 and his OPS is now at .878. But he still has 18 homers and 10 stolen bases in 13 attempts. Alec Burleson has an .835 OPS with 13 homers. JJ Wetherholt has 10 homers and a .759 OPS.
Nolan Gorman was recently demoted to AAA after he posted a .194 batting average in 62 games.
Against Noah Cameron, Walker is 2 for 5 with a home run. Ivan Herrera is 2 for 6 with a double. Nathan Church is 1 for 2 with a double. Lars Nootbaar is 1 for 6 with a single. Masyn Wynn is 0 for 8 with 3 K's. Burleson is 0 for 4 with a strikeout.
Noah Cameron finished 4th in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2025, posting a 3.8 bWAR and a 2.99 ERA. This season has been a rough go for him and his team. In 13 starts, he has a 4.11 ERA and a 0.6 bWAR. Over 70 innings, he's allowed 68 hits, 32 earned runs, walked 17, and struck out 64.
His numbers are somewhat misleading as he had a terrible start to the season in April, but has pitched well since. His last start was shaky against the Astros, allowing 7 hits and 4 earned runs in 4.1 innings, only logging 1 strikeout.
The Royals are having a poor season, 15 games under .500 and in last place in the AL Central. Their offense is a prime culprit. Vinnie Pasquantino is batting .224 with 6 homers. Lane Thomas is at .226. Salvador Perez is batting .200.
Bobby Witt Jr. is hitting .290 with an .815 OPS, 9 homers, and 28 stolen bases in 32 attempts. Jac Caglianone is hitting .267 with a .772 OPS and 8 home runs.
For KC against Liberatore, Maikel Garcia is 2 for 4 with a double and a home run. Perez is 4 for 7 with a home run. Thomas is 1 for 3 with a double. Witt is 1 for 7 with a single.
The Royals need to start stringing some wins together and are trusting Cameron as a key part of a rise to contention. The lefty has pitched reasonable well after that poor April, but has not been as good as he was last season.
Liberatore can generally be trusted for 5 innings and 4 or so runs. It's not great, but it could be worse.
The Cardinals are hitting better than the Royals and for the first game of their 3-game battle for bragging rights in Missouri, St. Louis should come out on top based on their more consistent hitting.
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St. Louis Cardinals +104
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