Published Jun 16, 6:35pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 16, 6:35pm ET
Updated Jun 16, 6:35pm ET
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| Los Angeles Dodgers | -175 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | +158 |
Shane McClanahan is 6-4 with a 3.23 ERA and a 2.82 FIP. His FIP sits below his surface ERA, which means the underlying contact quality has been even cleaner than the runs allowed suggest. His last-three FIP of 2.65 reflects a pitcher finding his best form at the right time. McClanahan works off a fastball-slider combination that generates chases down in the zone, and his strikeout rate has climbed over the last month. Tampa Bay is 41-28 and one of the better road teams in the American League.
Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda give the Rays their most reliable offensive contributors. The Tampa Bay bullpen FIP of 3.92 is a solid backend unit. McClanahan gives the Rays a genuine chance in almost any game; this just happens to be one where the opponent is pitching even better.
Shohei Ohtani is 6-2 with a 1.06 ERA and a 2.72 FIP. He threw six innings against the Pirates on June 10, allowing one hit and striking out six. He struck out nine Marlins batters in April with an ERA that sat at 0.60 through the first month of the season. The ERA has climbed marginally since, but it has held below 1.10 across enough starts to treat as a real data point. His last-three FIP of 3.42 shows minor cooling relative to his season baseline, but 3.42 still ranks among the best three-start stretches for any NL starter right now.
Los Angeles is 46-27 and carries a .788 OPS lineup into Wednesday, 68 points above Tampa Bay's .720. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Ohtani himself give the Dodgers three of the more dangerous bats in the NL. Their bullpen FIP of 3.49 and 27.4% strikeout rate is the stronger backend unit in this game.
Ohtani at 1.06 ERA at home against a Tampa Bay team he has faced twice this season without allowing more than one run. Los Angeles holds the lineup edge, the bullpen edge, and the home edge. McClanahan is good. Ohtani has been better.
Dodgers.
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -175
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Pick
Los Angeles Dodgers -175
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