Published Jun 15, 7:40pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 15, 7:40pm ET
Updated Jun 15, 7:40pm ET
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| Atlanta Braves | -155 |
| San Francisco Giants | +125 |
Adrian Houser is 4-6 with a 5.54 ERA and a 5.23 FIP. He has failed to complete five innings in each of his last two starts. The underlying numbers confirm this is not a sequencing issue: his last three FIPs of 5.58 is consistent with a pitcher who has been allowing hard contact at an elevated rate throughout the season.
San Francisco is 35-37 and sits near .500 with a lineup carrying a .725 OPS. Jung Hoo Lee and Willy Adames give the Giants two of their better offensive contributors. With that said, the team has struggled to generate consistent run support for a rotation that has not given them a lot of room to work with on the road.
Grant Holmes is 5-4 with a 2.39 ERA. He took a no-hit bid into the sixth inning against the Diamondbacks in April and has kept the ERA clean across 13 starts. He is a significant contribution for a Braves staff that has leaned on him heavily since losing several rotation pieces earlier in the season. His FIP of 3.26 sits above the surface ERA, but the ERA has held across enough innings to take at face value. His last-three FIP of 2.01 reflects his best stretch of the season.
Atlanta is 46-24 and plays one of the most complete games in the NL. Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, and Austin Riley give the Braves a lineup that punishes pitchers who miss the zone, and Houser has been missing it frequently. The Braves' bullpen FIP of 3.43 with a 26% strikeout rate is the better backend unit in this game by a significant margin.
Holmes at 2.01 FIP over his last three starts against a Giants pitcher who hasn't finished five innings in two consecutive outings. Atlanta holds the pitching edge, the lineup edge, and the bullpen edge. The gap between these rotations is real.
Braves.
Pick: Atlanta Braves -155
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Pick
Atlanta Braves -155
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