Published Jun 9, 4:49pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 9, 4:49pm ET
Updated Jun 9, 4:49pm ET
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| Toronto Blue Jays | -109 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | -109 |
Jesús Luzardo is holding a 3.45 FIP this season. The left-hander has settled into the middle of Philadelphia's rotation as the reliable second option. He works off a fastball-changeup combination that generates weak contact and keeps the ball in the yard. The Phillies are a deep offensive lineup; Luzardo's job is to keep games close long enough for Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber to do damage.
Philadelphia is 34-30 overall, sitting in the middle of the NL East race. Their road numbers have been uneven, but this is a lineup that generates runs in most ballparks, and Rogers Centre does not suppress offense the way Petco or PNC do.
Max Scherzer is 1-3 with a 9.64 ERA in five starts this season. The 41-year-old went on the IL on April 25 with right forearm tendinitis and left ankle inflammation. He made two Triple-A rehab starts with Buffalo, throwing 6.2 combined innings and topping out at 73 pitches in his final outing. He's being activated Wednesday to face the Phillies.
The ERA and FIP from his healthy April stretch are not what make this pick — it's the context. Scherzer is returning from a forearm issue on limited pitch counts, coming off two shaky rehab appearances, against a Phillies lineup that has been one of the better offensive units in the NL. Toronto's rotation has been gutted by injuries all season; Scherzer was supposed to anchor it and hasn't been able to stay healthy. Even in a best-case scenario Wednesday, he's working on 70-75 pitches before John Schneider goes to a bullpen that has been inconsistent.
Luzardo against a 41-year-old returning from a forearm injury on a pitch cap. Facing one of the better offensive lineups in the NL.
Phillies.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -109
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Pick
Philadelphia Phillies -109
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