Published Jun 8, 8:44pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 8, 8:44pm ET
Updated Jun 8, 8:44pm ET
|
|
|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | -103 |
| Cincinnati Reds | -107 |
Chase Burns is 7-1 with a 2.05 ERA. The 23-year-old right-hander was the second overall pick in the 2024 draft, and the development curve has been steep in the right direction. He struck out eight Mets batters on May 26 while sitting on a 1.96 ERA for the month. His last three starts produced a FIP of 2.92, well in line with a season ERA that is not a fluke. There is growing conversation around whether Cincinnati needs to cap his innings, which tells you everything about how he's been pitching.
Elly De La Cruz is sidelined with a hamstring injury, which takes some pop out of the Reds lineup. Still, Tyler Stephenson and Jonathan India give Cincinnati enough to generate runs against a pitcher who has been struggling.
Lucas Giolito is 2-1 with a 4.86 ERA, and the ERA undersells how bad his recent stretch has been. His FIP over his last three starts is 7.69. He signed with San Diego on a one-year deal after missing most of 2024 following Tommy John surgery, and the return has been rough. Giolito can still miss bats, but he's been leaving pitches in the zone that good lineups are turning into runs.
Petco Park suppresses offense, which is worth noting. The Padres' lineup has Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado at its core, and their home record has been solid. But facing Burns in this form, San Diego needs Giolito to hold the game close, and the last three starts suggest he can't.
Burns at 2.05 ERA and a last-three FIP of 2.92 against Giolito at 7.69 over his last three. The pitching gap is as wide as any on Tuesday's slate.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds (-107)
|
Pick
Cincinnati Reds (-107)
|
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000
|
