Published Jun 8, 8:55pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 8, 8:55pm ET
Updated Jun 8, 8:55pm ET
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| Chicago White Sox | +125 |
| Atlanta Braves | -148 |
Grant Holmes is 4-2 with a 3.86 ERA. He's not a name that gets Cy Young conversation, but he's been exactly what a rotation-battered Braves team needed: a durable, efficient arm who eats innings and doesn't blow up games. Atlanta's Opening Day rotation is entirely on the injured list; Holmes has held the staff together. Over his last three starts, his FIP sits at 2.01, the kind of number that says the underlying performance is better than the surface results.
Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, and Austin Riley give Atlanta a lineup that scores in clusters. The Braves are 44-21 and have won eight of their last ten, playing the most complete baseball in the National League right now.
Erick Fedde is 1-5 with a 4.94 ERA. His FIP over his last three starts is 6.61. He pitched five shutout innings against the Twins in his most recent outing, which looked like a correction — but one good start against Minnesota does not change what the underlying numbers have been saying for two months. Fedde has been getting hit hard, and the ERA reflects that.
The White Sox are 34-30 and have been one of the better surprise stories in the AL this year. Miguel Vargas and Luis Robert give Chicago legitimate threats in the lineup. Their bullpen has been serviceable. But they're asking Fedde to hold a Braves offense that has been the best in the NL, and the FIP gap between these two starters is nearly five runs.
Holmes with a 2.01 last-three FIP against Fedde at 6.61. Atlanta is the better team by record and the better team by rotation. -148 is a fair price for the gap in pitching quality here.
Take Atlanta.
Pick: Atlanta Braves -148
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Pick
Atlanta Braves -148
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