Published Jun 8, 8:35pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 8, 8:35pm ET
Updated Jun 8, 8:38pm ET
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| Cleveland Guardians | +122 |
| New York Yankees | -144 |
Gerrit Cole is pitching with a 2.00 ERA through four starts since returning from Tommy John surgery. His first two outings were dominant: 12 scoreless innings, 12 strikeouts, no real trouble. The third start went sideways. Cleveland tagged him for three home runs in 5.1 innings, which is exactly the kind of contact-oriented damage this lineup does against pitchers who rely on command and chase. Cole's FIP sits at 4.43 — a two-run gap from the surface ERA that reflects some outperformance that may not hold.
Ben Rice and Jasson Dominguez carry the Yankees' lineup in the absence of Judge, Stanton, and Wells. The offense has shown it can score runs without its best players, but the production profile is thinner than it looks.
Slade Cecconi came into 2026 posting an ERA near five and getting hit around. Then he made an adjustment: leaning harder on his cutter instead of the slider. Over his last five starts, he's allowed three runs or fewer in every one, with Cleveland winning four of them. His FIP over his last three starts is 1.98. That's not noise at this point.
Cleveland's lineup is built for exactly this kind of game. José Ramírez, Kyle Manzardo, and Travis Bazzana give the Guardians their best run-producing options, and the contact-heavy approach that gave Cole trouble last week will show up again Tuesday. Progressive Field is a fair park, and Cleveland is 36-22 at home this season.
Cole's ERA is real but the FIP gap is a flag. Cecconi has been one of the better pitchers in the AL over the last month, and Cleveland is at home against a depleted New York lineup. The Guardians already beat Cole in this ballpark.
This is the weakest of Tuesday's three picks — three signals, not five, and Cole's track record earns respect. But the price and the matchup lean Cleveland.
Guardians.
Pick: Cleveland Guardians +122
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Pick
Cleveland Guardians +122
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