Published May 29, 9:12pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 29, 9:12pm ET
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Updated May 29, 9:13pm ET
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| Cleveland Guardians | -125 |
| Boston Red Sox | +113 |
Sonny Gray has been reliable for the Red Sox this season. He has a 0.4 bWAR and a 3.27 ERA in 9 starts. In 44 innings, he's allowed 42 hits and 16 earned runs, walking 11 and striking out 34. While he can't be counted on to go more than 5 or so innings, he's still been good enough this season.
While Boston's problems go beyond the offense, it's a major issue. Apart from Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela, their offense has been generally bad. Jarren Duran has a batting average hovering around .210. Marcelo Mayer is at around .220. Caleb Durbin is under .180. Unless they hit, they're not getting back into contention. As of now, they're stuck in last place in the AL East.
Guardians starter Parker Messick has only faced Rafaela (0 for 2) and Connor Wong (1 for 1).
When discussing the best pitchers in MLB for 2026, Parker Messick does not immediately come to mind. However, his performance warrants that lofty categorization.
He is already at a 2.5 bWAR with a 2.24 ERA. In 64.1 innings, he's surrendered 48 hits and 16 earned runs, walking 19 and striking out 70. The lefty's worst start this season was surrendering 4 earned runs against the Athletics. Apart from that, he's given up 3 or fewer runs in every other start.
The Guardians have taken command of the AL Central and have done it with a shaky offense and limited production from star 3rd baseman Jose Ramirez. Ramirez has an OPS of around .740. Expect him to have a hot streak soon. Angel Martinez leads the team in homers. Steven Kwan is barely over .200, but has been hitting better of late.
Against Sonny Gray, Rhys Hoskins is 5 for 20 with 2 doubles and a home run. Patrick Bailey is 1 for 5 with a homer. Austin Hedges is 3 for 9 with 2 homers. Ramirez is 9 for 45 with 2 doubles. Martinez is 0 for 3 with a strikeout.
Boston has not been able to play consistently well all season. Although Gray has been moderately effective this season, Messick has been on a whole other level. The Guardians are playing reasonably well despite their lack of offense.
Cleveland will take this game from Boston behind their ace and keep the BoSox stumbling.
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Pick
Cleveland Guardians -125
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