Published May 29, 8:39pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 29, 8:39pm ET
Updated May 29, 8:40pm ET
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| Washington Nationals | -116 |
| San Diego Padres | -112 |
Michael King is 2.76 ERA and 3.71 FIP. His last 3 FIPs are 3.21. The recent form represents some convergence toward his season line. The ERA has been running below the FIP most of the year, and the gap has tightened in recent starts. He has been one of the better starters San Diego has put out this season, and that is not an argument against Washington winning the game.
The problem is what is behind him. San Diego's lineup is hitting .654 OPS. That is not a number that wins games in close pitching matchups by itself. King needs to be efficient and the offense needs to produce. One of those things has been happening. The other has been a struggle.
Foster Griffin has a 3.60 ERA and a 4.58 FIP. His ERA has been running well below the underlying contact quality; batters have squared him up more than the ERA shows, and at some point that gap narrows. His FIP over his last three starts is 3.82. Not elite, not collapsing; somewhere in between, which is actually a useful place for Washington to be on Saturday.
The lineup behind him is the more relevant number. Washington is hitting .748 OPS as a team, nearly a hundred points above what San Diego has been producing. That is not a minor edge. Against a pitcher generating contact at a 4.58 FIP rate, the Nationals are positioned to do damage.
King is the better pitcher on the field on Saturday. But pitching alone is not what wins baseball games in May. San Diego's offense has been quiet for weeks. Washington's lineup holds a significant edge, with a .748 OPS vs. 654, and Griffin has been trending better than his season FIP suggests. The counterargument is that King can carry a bad offense for six innings, keep the game close, and let the bullpen handle it. San Diego's relief corps is solid. That case exists.
It is not enough against a Washington lineup priced near even money at home.
Pick: Washington Nationals -116
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Pick
Washington Nationals -116
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