Published May 25, 9:53am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 25, 9:53am ET
Updated May 25, 9:53am ET
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| Chicago White Sox | -105 |
| Minnesota Twins | -114 |
Zebby Matthews is 1.38 ERA and 2.69 FIP this season. He is a second-year pitcher doing things that most veterans with years of MLB service time cannot sustain. His strikeout rate is elite, his walk totals are manageable, and the contact when hitters do make it has been soft enough to keep the ERA where it sits. He is not a guy running on luck — the FIP confirms what the box scores show, just at a slightly higher level.
Byron Buxton leads the Twins lineup, and Josh Bell has been the most consistent run producer in the middle of the order. Minnesota is a team that scores enough to make a performance like Matthews' matter.
Anthony Kay is 4.27 ERA with a 5.37 FIP. The ERA has been running well ahead of where his underlying numbers sit. Walks, contact quality, and strand rates have been keeping the surface results from reflecting what the batted ball data shows. The White Sox have been competitive at home this season, and Munetaka Murakami remains a legitimate power threat at the top of the lineup. But Kay will need to pitch well above what his FIP suggests is his current level to stay in this game.
The market prices this as a coin flip. Matthews has a 1.38 ERA and a 2.69 FIP. Kay has a 5.37 FIP and an ERA running below it. The Twins have the significantly better pitcher, a lineup that has been producing, and are available at -114, a price that barely asks anything from you on a game this clearly tilted on the mound. Minnesota today.
Pick: Minnesota Twins -114
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Pick
Minnesota Twins -114
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