Published May 21, 5:55am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 21, 5:55am ET
Updated May 21, 5:55am ET
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| New York Yankees | -175 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | +144 |
Braydon Fisher is not a name that generates attention in the American League East, but his FIP is 3.68 and his numbers have been consistent all season. He works efficiently, commands his fastball to both sides of the plate, and has not had the blow-up start that derails a pitcher's ERA in a single outing. Toronto has asked him to be reliable mid-rotation depth, and he has been exactly that. Against the Yankees' lineup, which is the most dangerous part of tonight's equation, Fisher needs to work ahead in counts and keep the ball out of the air at Yankee Stadium.
The Blue Jays lineup sits at .675 OPS, which is a meaningful step below what New York brings to the other side. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette have been productive, and the lineup has enough in the middle to score two or three runs in a game where the pitching holds up. Two or three runs may be enough tonight — that depends entirely on what Rodón gives the Yankees.
Carlos Rodón is 5.63 ERA and 4.03 FIP. The ERA has been a painful number for a Yankees rotation that has needed reliable length from him, but the FIP says the results have been worse than the process. His stuff has produced contact numbers more consistent with a 4.03 ERA pitcher than a 5.63, meaning the damage has come in bunches. The gap is real and suggests some correction is coming.
New York's lineup at .760 OPS is the primary reason they are -175 favorites tonight. Aaron Judge has been the most productive position player in the American League. Ben Rice has been one of the breakout stories of the first two months, and the Yankees have the kind of lineup depth that makes single mistakes into multi-run innings. This is the real argument for New York and it cannot be waved away. The lineup gap between these two teams is one of the largest on today's board.
he Yankees' lineup is real and -175 reflects it. Fisher's FIP is still cleaner than Rodón's, and Rodón has been pitching to a 4.03 FIP while the ERA says 5.63. This is the higher-variance pick on the board today. However, Toronto just needs the pitching edge to hold and the lineup gap to not fully materialize. At +144, it's Worth taking on the value.
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays +144
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Pick
Toronto Blue Jays +144
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