NFL 2026: 5 Solid Options for the Over in Win Totals

• NFL over win totals are available and there could be good options to jump on early
• The offseason and teams’ plans are set to ramp up soon with the draft, free agency, trades, contract disputes, retirements, and the full schedule release
• Which teams might surpass the current projected total and why?

Good Odds for 2026 Over Win Totals

Atlanta Falcons

If the Falcons surpass their 2025 win total (by one game) and get to 9 wins, it would be viewed as happening due to nothing more than Kevin Stefanski replacing Raheem Morris as head coach.

That is undoubtedly a factor. And there are legitimate questions about them, including whether Michael Penix will be healthy to start the season after a serious knee injury and if they find a backup who can step in with the club set to release Kirk Cousins.

An immediate possibility is that the Falcons consider a veteran like Tua Tagovailoa or one of Stefanski’s QBs in Cleveland, Dillon Gabriel.

The NFC South could be mediocre, and the Falcons, despite not having finished above .500 since 2017, have significant talent already on the roster. They put a franchise tag on tight end Kyle Pitts. With Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, and Drake London, Stefanski is presumably salivating about what he can do offensively.

The defense is pretty good too.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills did not acquit themselves well after their season-ending overtime loss to the Broncos in the Divisional Round. Given their inability to get over the hump and reach a Super Bowl with Josh Allen under center, firing head coach Sean McDermott was a reasonable step. 

Period.

They maintained continuity by naming offensive coordinator Joe Brady the new head coach.

Their key is finding a #1 receiver so Khalil Shakir can slot in where he belongs as a #2. The sieve-like defense needs to be shored up.

The AFC East has two punching bags in the Jets and Dolphins. The Patriots made their Super Bowl run, but they are a prime candidate to regress, opening the door for the Bills to win 11 games.

Cleveland Browns

Yes, it’s the Browns.

Of course, they seem to be in constant disarray as though that’s the plan in the first place.

No, they do not warrant the benefit of the doubt for anything they do.

They fired Stefanski and hired veteran assistant Todd Monken. The architect of their superlative defense, Jim Schwartz, quit when he was passed over for head coach. No one seems to know who their quarterback will be between Shedeur Sanders, Deshaun Watson, Dillon Gabriel, or veteran to be named later.

New defensive coordinator Mike Rutenberg has no experience as a full-time coordinator. He would be well-advised to hew as closely as possible to Schwartz’s aggressive, pressure-centric defense and placate star Myles Garrett.

If anyone is going to maximize Sanders’ abilities, it’s Monken. Watson is expected back and he was never a fit for Stefanski’s offense. He’s missed significant time after an Achilles tear and re-tear.

But the AFC North promises to be weaker with the Steelers showing desperation, the Ravens working under a new head coach, and the Bengals always one Joe Burrow injury away from going 7-10.

Oddsmakers have the Browns at 6 wins and they’re a good choice to go beyond that.

Houston Texans

The Texans won 12 of their last 14 regular season games after an 0-3 start. They did it with QB C.J. Stroud having a subpar season, sparking questions as to his future in Houston. GM Nick Cesario has completely dismissed any talk of a trade.

There is no doubt the team’s offense was shaky in 2025. It wasn’t great in 2024. They need a horse at running back and to bolster the offensive line. Rumors have been thrown out about the possibility of pursuing Seahawks’ Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III, and 49ers veteran future Hall of Fame lineman Trent Williams.

Regardless of what they ultimately do, it’s clear that Cesario and head coach Demeco Ryans know they can’t withstand another awful start and a popgun offense if they want to take that next step.

The AFC South can be challenging with the Jaguars, Colts, and rebuilding Titans. But Jacksonville and Indy have questions of their own.

The Texans should get to 10 wins. They’re a viable Super Bowl contender if their offense is in any way productive.

Minnesota Vikings

Independent of Tommy Kramer’s comments on J.J. McCarthy, it’s clear the Vikings want to make sure they don’t make the same mistake in 2026 as they made in 2025 by throwing all their chips into the center of the table on McCarthy. Their comments about exploring the QB market indicate they do not intend to.

For all intents and purposes, McCarthy was a rookie in 2025 after blowing out his knee in training camp 2024, opening the door for Sam Darnold to lead them to a 14-3 record and securing a long-term deal with the Seahawks, winning the Super Bowl.

It was a testament to head coach Kevin O’Connell that he held the team together amid a clear fracture in the locker room about McCarthy and it rebounded from a 4-8 start to finish above .500 and nearly squeak into the playoffs.

They must get the ball in Justin Jefferson’s hands. If McCarthy can’t do it, someone else will.

Although the NFC North is arguably the toughest division in the NFL, expect the Vikings to, at a minimum, win 9 games again.

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