Published Jan 2, 9:19pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jan 2, 9:19pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Jan 2, 9:19pm ET
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| New England Patriots | -11.5 (-110) |
| Miami Dolphins | +11.5 (-110) |
The Dolphins are out of playoff contention and cannot finish at .500. They are coming off a Week 17 win over the Buccaneers that severely damaged Tampa's hopes for the NFC South title. They are looking at rookie QB Quinn Ewers, who has played well in his two starts after taking over for Tua Tagovailoa.
This game in New England doesn't matter much, but some believe that head coach Mike McDaniel might get another year. Notably, NFL insider Albert Breer has been saying it is a coin flip. He has noted that there seems to be a preference within the organization to give him a chance under a new GM and perhaps with a new QB.
Albert Breer: Mike McDaniel’s status “coin flip right now.” https://t.co/z3kguzouGL
— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) January 3, 2026
Beating the Patriots would certainly help his case. Though the overwhelming sense in general is that he will be let go. In a perfect world, that should be left up to the GM, but many owners hire the GM and coach separately.
Still, the game could matter to the Broncos and Jaguars.
Against the Bucs, Ewers completed 14 of 22 passes for 172 yards and 2 TDs. De'Von Achane ran for 83 yards on 18 carries. Jaylen Wright added 56 on 5 carries.
The Dolphins will not lay down for the Pats, particularly since Ewers is trying to impress the hierarchy so they consider him for the starting job next season.
ALSO SEE: Chargers vs Broncos | Week 18 Odds & NFL Pick (Jan 4)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Chop Robinson, LB | INJURED |
| Jordyn Brooks, LB | INJURED |
| De'Von Achane, RB | INJURED |
| Austin Jackson, G | INJURED |
| Quinton Bell, LB | INJURED |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick, S | INJURED |
| Darren Waller, TE | INJURED |
| Jaylen Waddle, WR | INJURED |
| Aaron Brewer, C | INJURED |
New England can still take the top seed in the conference. With that in mind, head coach Mike Vrabel is starting his key players, Drake Maye, TreVeyon Henderson, and others. Even OT Will Campbell, out since Week 12 with a sprained knee, is trending toward a return against Miami.
#Patriots vets Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradbury crashed rookie Will Campbell’s media scrum by blasting the Undertaker’s theme song 🤣
— Carlos A. Lopez (@LosTalksPats) December 31, 2025
“He’s back! Standing at 6'6, 315 lbs from Louisiana State… Wiiiillll Campbelllll!”
(🎥 @PatriotsCLNS)pic.twitter.com/v9kYeuKvtz
The Pats can still clinch the top seed if they win and the Broncos lose or tie, or if the Pats tie and the Broncos lose.
Since the Chargers are resting their players for the Wild Card next week, it's extremely unlikely that they beat the Broncos.
New England clinched the AFC East in Week 17 with a vicious beating of the Jets that was reminiscent of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Maye was nearly perfect, completing 19 of 21 passes for 256 yards and 5 TDs. He had a passer rating of 157.0. Vrabel pulled him in the 3rd quarter for veteran Josh Dobbs.
The Pats should know relatively early whether the Chargers have a chance against the Broncos. Then Vrabel will presumably take Maye and others out, one way or the other.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Charles Woods, CB | INJURED |
| Harold Landry III, LB | INJURED |
| Robert Spillaine, LB | INJURED |
| Khyiris Tonga, DT | INJURED |
| Jared Wilson, G | INJURED |
| Jack Westover, TE | INJURED |
In Week 18 Dolphins-Patriots, Miami is expected to try all out to potentially save head coach McDaniel's job. New England, of course, needs to win to have a chance at the #1 seed, no matter how far-fetched it is that they have the good fortune of getting it.
Do not ignore the Chargers-Broncos and what will likely happen in Denver when assessing Dolphins-Patriots. If Denver jumps out to a big lead, expect Vrabel to take his foot off the gas and rest his players for the Wild Card.
New England should win the game, but the heavy underdog Miami will keep the game within 11.5 points.
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Pick
Miami Dolphins +11.5
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