Published Jan 2, 8:08pm EST by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jan 2, 8:08pm EST
Grok AI
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| Denver Broncos | -12.5 (-110) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +12.5 (-110) |
The Chargers could finish in the 5th, 6th, or 7th seed for the AFC playoffs.
To get the 5th seed, they would need to beat the Broncos and have the Texans lose to the Colts. For the 6th seed, they would either need to beat the Broncos or hope the Bills lose to the Jets (good luck) and have the Texans beat the Colts. For the 7th seed, they need to lose to the Broncos while the Bills beat the Jets.
The odds of them getting the 5 or 6 are so long that head coach Jim Harbaugh has all but conceded their position by sitting QB Justin Herbert. Trey Lance will start.
#Chargers QB Justin Herbert will NOT play on Sunday vs. the Broncos, per HC Jim Harbaugh.
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 29, 2025
With the division no longer a possibility, they are onto the playoffs. pic.twitter.com/7xJ4ohwxnH
RB Omarion Hampton is out. Other players who are unlikely to play are WR Keenan Allen, OLB Khalil Mack, and RB Kimani Vidal.
This is undoubtedly the wise decision. Herbert has taken a beating this season with a porous offensive line. He's been sacked 54 times and has been playing with a fractured bone in his non-throwing hand. They need him for the playoffs, not to try and get a slightly higher seed in the playoffs when they're going to be on the road regardless.
ALSO SEE: Titans vs Jaguars | Week 18 Odds & NFL Pick (Jan 4)
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Justin Herbert, QB | INJURED |
| Jamaree Salyer, G | INJURED |
| Elijah Molden, CB | INJURED |
| Kimani Vidal, RB | INJURED |
| Omarion Hampton, RB | INJURED |
| Hassan Haskins, RB | INJURED |
| Nikko Reed, CB | INJURED |
| Benjamin St-Juste, CB | INJURED |
| RJ Mickens, S | INJURED |
| Bradley Bozeman, C | INJURED |
It's only "almost" because "any given Sunday," blah, blah, blah.
But for the Broncos to get the top seed in the AFC bracket, the simplest way is to win.
They also secure the #1 seed if they tie and the Patriots lose or tie. Finally, they will get the #1 seed if the Patriots lose and the Jaguars lose or tie.
With that in mind, the Broncos cannot sit their stars. But if they do secure that top seed, they'll get a bye and home field advantage for the playoffs.
"One game, one opportunity. Let's go get this thing done."
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) December 29, 2025
Broncos focused on opportunity to clinch 'extremely important' No. 1 seed in Week 18 vs. Chargers » https://t.co/sCyvOkP6N1 pic.twitter.com/QyCSPrdsUt
Head coach Sean Payton doesn't need to go over the top in trying to motivate his players. They know what's at stake. In a best-case scenario, they'll get a big lead and be able to pull Bo Nix, Patrick Surtain II, and Alex Singleton, among others.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Dre Greenlaw, LB | INJURED |
| John Franklin-Myers, DE | INJURED |
| Luke Wattenberg, C | INJURED |
In Week 18 Chargers-Broncos, the game matters to Denver and not to LA.
Of course, LA would be fine with a higher seed, but Harbaugh clearly sees greater value in resting his battered troops. With that, Denver benefits as it is facing the untested Lance and a string of backups and role players.
Denver will try to get a lead and pull their players as quickly as possible. They do need to win because they're unlikely to get sufficient help from the Dolphins as they play the Patriots. And they probably won't get assistance from the Colts as they play the Jaguars.
The Broncos will win the game easily and cover the heavy spread.
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Pick
Denver Broncos -12.5
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