Published Oct 16, 9:11pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Oct 16, 9:11pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Oct 16, 9:11pm ET
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|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | -1 (-122) |
| Atlanta Falcons | +1 (+102) |
There were lingering questions about the Falcons when they got off to a 1-2 start, with the second loss being a 30-0 whitewashing to the Panthers. Head coach Raheem Morris was said to be on shaky ground, and starting quarterback Michael Penix had been pulled for veteran Kirk Cousins in Carolina.
The schedule was not kind to them in the subsequent games.
However, Atlanta beat the Commanders 34-27 in a game that was not as close as the score suggests.
In Week 6, they hosted Buffalo, winning 24-14. The defense corralled Josh Allen, holding him to 180 yards through the air, picking him off twice. Bijan Robinson ran for 170 yards on 19 carries and caught 6 passes for 68 yards. Penix was 20 for 32 and 250 yards with 1 TD pass.
Believe it or not, Bijan’s longest career run was 38 yards until tonight
— Nico (@elitetakes_) October 14, 2025
He just doubled it pic.twitter.com/arcIwngpjf
The Falcons have momentum and travel to the Bay to play the wounded 49ers.
Atlanta is leading the NFL in rushing yards per game. With the 'Niners missing both Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, their rush defense and pass rush are terribly compromised.
Atlanta is a +3 in takeaway differential. Penix is generally good at ball security. They are somewhat vulnerable to the rush, ranked 17th in the league. However, they are 1st in defensive passing yards per game.
The 49ers' injury report is interchangeable with their list of Pro Bowlers.
They are without Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Fred Warner, and Nick Bosa. Suffice it to say, they're beaten up.
Backup QB Mac Jones has played respectably in place of Purdy, accruing a 3-1 record, a 67.3 completion percentage, leading the league in yardage per games played, 6 TD passes, and 3 interceptions.
He's found a favorite target in Kendrick Bourne.
Kendrick was Bourne to make plays!
— NFL (@NFL) October 12, 2025
56-yard catch and run 😤
SFvsTB on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/uQr1eFrarz
In the last two games, Bourne has caught 15 balls for 284 yards.
San Francisco has shown fight despite the rampant injuries, losing a tight battle to the Bucs that was a 1-point affair until 2:40 was left on the clock when Tampa pulled away.
They have sandwiched two losses to the Jaguars and Bucs with a win over the Rams.
It will be difficult for the 49ers to overcome their litany of injuries to star players, particularly with the Seahawks playing as well as they have and the Rams sitting at 4-2.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney, ATL | INJURED |
| Jake Matthews, ATL | INJURED |
| Jalon Walker, ATL | INJURED |
| Billy Bowman Jr., ATL | INJURED |
| Clark Phillips, ATL | INJURED |
| Fred Warner, SF | INJURED |
| Brock Purdy, SF | INJURED |
| George Kittle, SF | INJURED |
| Ricky Pearsall, SF | INJURED |
| Jauan Jennings, SF | INJURED |
| Nick Bosa, SF | INJURED |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling, SF | INJURED |
For the Week 7 Falcons-49ers matchup, Atlanta wants to continue its trend of running the ball down the opponents' throats and avoiding mistakes. With San Francisco missing so many key components, Atlanta needs to play a fundamentally solid game and control the clock.
As well as Jones has played, he, too, is beaten up. His numbers are good, but the playbook has been streamlined for him.
Can the 'Niners, in their current state, corral the dual-headed Falcons backfield duo of Robinson and Tyler Allgeier? If the Falcons manage to win in San Francisco, they host the Dolphins in Week 8 with the chance to get to 5-2 in the suddenly not-so-weak NFC South.
Underdog Atlanta will beat the 49ers on the road.
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Pick
Atlanta Falcons +1
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