Published Oct 16, 5:35pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Oct 16, 5:35pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Oct 16, 8:05pm ET
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| Dallas Cowboys | +1 (+100) |
| Washington Commanders | -1 (-120) |
Washington sits at 3-3 after six games, in second place in the NFC East. Injuries to key offensive players, quarterback Jayden Daniels, running back Austin Ekeler, and wide receiver Terry McLaurin have deprived them of their 2024 flash.
However, Deebo Samuel and Jacory Croskey-Merritt are picking up some of the slack.
The past two weeks exemplified the Commanders' season so far. In Week 5, they beat the favored Chargers 27-10 on an efficient performance from Daniels in his return from a knee injury, and 111 yards on the ground from Croskey-Merritt.
In Week 6, Washington was trying to run out the clock with a 24-22 lead over the Bears when Daniels botched a handoff. It allowed Chicago to get into field goal range for the winning kick.
Jayden Daniels never quite gave the ball to Bill Croskey-Merritt and now the Bears get EXCELLENT field position 🥶
— Mikerophone (@MikerophoneNFL) October 14, 2025
Commanders might choke this one…
pic.twitter.com/jxiwYJzOLc
Their defense has been shaky, but they have a solid pass rush led by Dorance Armstrong Jr.
They're in the lower third of the league in both passing yards allowed and rushing yards allowed. Their offense has not been as productive as it was in 2024, but much of that is due to injuries. Daniels's knee is unlikely to be 100% for the remainder of the season. If he can't run as much as he did last season, it deprives him and the Commanders of a big chunk of his game.
If Dallas had some semblance of a defense, they could easily be 4-2 instead of 2-3-1.
Trading away Micah Parsons has contributed to their defensive struggles. It has particularly hindered the pass rush. But they've been awful against the pass and the rush almost equally.
In their Week 6 loss to the Panthers, former Dallas running back Rico Dowdle took personally the decision to let him leave, rushing for 183 yards on 30 carries and adding another 56 on 4 receptions.
Quarterback Dak Prescott is on his way to the best statistical season of his career. He leads the NFL in completions and attempts, has tossed 13 TD passes against 3 picks. But getting into shootouts every week tends to end with mediocrity at best, and that's where the Cowboys are.
They miss the injured CeeDee Lamb, but George Pickens has been picking up the slack and is developing a rapport with Prescott.
Look at Dak Prescott and George Pickens 🥹 pic.twitter.com/FpY97bcFBe
— MartinTalkCowboys (@DAK_4_MVP) October 8, 2025
The Cowboys' issue is relatively simple: their offense has been excellent; their defense has been atrocious. Their ballhawk defense of the past has 2 interceptions this season. It's not going to work, and they won't make the playoffs without finding a way to plug the defensive leaks.
| PLAYER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin, WAS | INJURED |
| Dorance Armstrong, WAS | INJURED |
| Deebo Samuel, WAS | INJURED |
| Tyler Booker, DAL | INJURED |
| Tyler Smith, DAL | INJURED |
| Donovan Wilson, DAL | INJURED |
| Jonathan Sanborn, DAL | INJURED |
| KaVontae Turpin, DAL | INJURED |
| CeeDee Lamb, DAL | INJURED |
In the Week 7 Commanders-Cowboys matchup, Washington goes to Texas with myriad injuries to its offense. Dallas has injuries of its own, but even when they were healthy, their defense couldn't stop anyone.
Ordinarily, Daniels' knee injury would leave him at the mercy of the Cowboys' pass rush. But they do not have a pass rush. With both teams compromised, the key will be avoiding turnovers, something that doomed Washington in its loss to the Bears.
The Commanders will outscore the Cowboys in a shootout.
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Pick
Washington Commanders -1
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