Published May 23, 9:13am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 23, 9:13am ET
Updated May 23, 9:13am ET
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| Boston Red Sox | -120 |
| Minnesota Twins | +100 |
Taj Bradley is 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA and a 3.53 FIP across eight starts since coming to Minnesota from Tampa Bay. The ERA and FIP are telling the same story. He has been pitching to his results, and the results have been good. Bradley has 52 strikeouts against 17 walks in 47 innings. This is a command profile that holds up in difficult road environments. Fenway will test him in the way that Fenway tests everyone, but nothing in his peripherals suggests the surface numbers are borrowed.
Byron Buxton leads Minnesota in home runs and gives the lineup its most dangerous power threat. Josh Bell has been the primary run producer, and Ryan Jeffers is leading the team in batting average. The Twins carry a .711 OPS and are 6-4 in their last ten.
Jovani Morán is 2.81 ERA as a starter, which is the number the market is pricing. His FIP is 4.67. That is a gap of 1.86 runs. His whiff rate is elite at 36.8 percent, which is genuine, but the contact quality when hitters do make contact has not matched the strikeout rate. The ERA has been propped up by results that his underlying numbers say should not have held. Boston has been rolling Morán out in a starting role from the bullpen, and the innings limit that comes with that transition adds another layer of uncertainty.
The Red Sox carry a .679 OPS and are 5-5 in their last ten. The lineup has talent but has not been scoring at the rate that would compensate if Morán pitches to his FIP rather than his ERA tonight.
The Twins have the lineup edge, the pitching edge, and are available at even money against a team whose starter is due for results to catch up with his process.
When the more reliable pitcher starts for the team with the better lineup and they are priced at +100, the math is straightforward. Minnesota tonight.
Pick: Minnesota Twins +100
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Pick
Minnesota Twins +100
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