Last updated Apr 29, 10:54pm ET

  • Our Yankees vs Orioles pick analyzes 1st-place New York trying to keep last-place Baltimore spiraling at Camden Yards
  • New York starts veteran Carlos Carrasco; Baltimore sends lefty Cade Povich to the mound
  • The Yankees have risen to the top of the AL East despite struggling bats and a change at closer
  • Baltimore is one of MLB‘s biggest disappointments in 2025
TeamRun LineMoneylineTotal
New York Yankees-1.5 (+130)-110O 9.5 (-125)
Baltimore Orioles+1.5 (-150)+100U 9.5 (+105)

Veteran Carrasco Hopes to Keep O’s in a Free Fall

The first-place Yankees, fresh off their 15-3 bashing of the Orioles, send veteran Carlos Carrasco to the mound for the rubber game of their 3-game set in Baltimore. Carrasco has alternated good and bad starts this season. In his last start, he held the Blue Jays scoreless in 5 innings. Overall, he has a 5.26 ERA in 6 appearances, including 5 starts.

Against Carrasco, the Orioles’ Gunnar Henderson is 3 for 5 with a home run. Jorge Mateo is 2 for 2 with a double. Ramon Laureano is 2 for 5 with a double.

Aaron Judge continued to defy description. He’s batting .412 with a .507 on-base percentage, a .728 slugging percentage, a 1.235 OPS. and 9 home runs. Trent Grisham is off to a magical start with 8 home runs. Anthony Volpe appears to have emerged from his dreadful slump.

When Does an Orioles’ “Manager Watch” Start?

The Orioles’ 11-18 record isn’t solely manager Brandon Hyde’s fault, but at a certain point, that doesn’t matter. They have a very young team, have made some awful mistakes like thinking Charlie Morton could fill some of the innings lost when Corbin Burnes was allowed to leave. Tyler O’Neill’s batting average is down near .200. Heston Kjerstad is batting .186. Adley Rutschman is batting .208.

The only offensive bright spots have been Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn.

Hyde had gotten them to the postseason in consecutive seasons and they haven’t one a game. Now, they’re cratering under a new ownership. Do the math.

For this game, Cade Povich starts. He has a 5.04 ERA in 5 starts. Still, the ERA was blown up by one terrible start against the Reds in which he surrendered 7 earned runs.

Against Povich, Judge (who else?) is 1 for 1 with a home run. Volpe is 2 for 4 with 2 singles.

The Orioles needs to start racking up some wins or it’s likely that changes are on the horizon.

Yankees vs Orioles Pick: NY Keeps Baltimore Sliding

The Yankees’ offense has been up-and-down apart from Judge. But against Povich and the staggered Orioles, they will put up runs. Carrasco will pitch well enough to get the game to the bullpen and New York will win by at least 2 runs.

Pick
Yankees Spread -1.5 (+130)
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Paul Lebowitz
Paul Lebowitz

Writer, Columnist

Paul is an experienced sportswriter and novelist from NYC with expertise in sports analysis and betting. His work has appeared on platforms like ESPN and YES Network, delivering engaging and objective insights to a diverse audience.

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