Twins vs Orioles Pick: O’s Ace Sugano Faces Minnesota’s Paddack (May 15)

• Our Twins vs Orioles pick analyzes the O’s sending the best starter, Tomoyuki Sugano, to the hill against streaking Minnesota and Chris Paddack
• Minnesota may have saved some jobs with the manager, coaching staff, and even the front office, with its recent hot streak getting them over .500
• Baltimore faces similar questions to those the Twins were dealing with, considering their poor play and underachievement

Paddack Is Coming Close to His Rookie Form

It’s been an up-and-down few years for Twins righty Chris Paddack. In 2019, he was one of MLB‘s biggest surprises as an unheralded prospect who contended for National League Rookie of the Year for the Padres. He was eventually traded to the Twins and had Tommy John surgery.

In 2025, he has a 4.76 ERA, largely due to his first start of the season against the atrocious White Sox when he gave up 9 earned runs in 3.1 innings. Since then, he’s been solid. He’s pitched at least 5 innings in his last six starts. His previous outing against the Giants was his best of the season: 7.1 innings, 3 hits, 1 earned run, no walks, and 6 strikeouts.

Against the Orioles, Paddack has had trouble with Gunnar Henderson. Henderson is 3 for 4 with a home run. Ramon Laureano is 3 for 8 with a double. Cedric Mullins, who had a grand slam on Wednesday, is 2 for 6.

Minnesota is still without star third baseman Royce Lewis, and Carlos Correa is still batting in the .230s with no power.

Harrison Bader has been surprisingly excellent with a batting average hovering around .300 and his superlative outfield defense. Byron Buxton has managed to stay on the field and leads the team in home runs.

Where Would the O’s Be Without Sugano?

After a 12-year career in Japan, 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano signed a one-year deal with the Orioles. He was a relative unknown compared to bigger name Japanese signings like the Dodgers’ Roki Sasaki. However, he has been excellent with a 4-2 record and a 1.3 bWAR. He has made 8 starts, thrown 46.1 innings, and given up 39 hits and 14 earned runs.

Without him, the last-place Orioles would be in even worse shape. He has never faced anyone on the Twins.

After a blistering start, Mullins’ batting average has dwindled to the .220s. If the Orioles start making midseason deals to clear out veterans, he’s likely to go along with pitcher Zack Eflin and perhaps Sugano.

Several of the Orioles’ would-be young stars are playing poorly. Heston Kjerstand, former second overall pick, is hitting in the low .200s. Former first overall pick Adley Rutschman has dropped below .200.

This team needs a wake-up call, somehow.

Twins vs Orioles Pick: Sugano Will Again Deliver for the O’s

As badly as the Orioles have played, Sugano has been a bright spot. It also helps that the Twins have never seen him before. Paddack has also pitched well, but this will be a close game that the O’s will pull out behind their unexpected ace.