Phillies vs Rays Pick: Philly Sends Ace Wheeler to the Hill (May 6)

• Our Phillies vs Rays pick analyzes if Philly ace Zack Wheeler can handle the Rays
• Philly is in 2nd place in the NL East; Tampa is in 3rd place in the AL East
• The Rays send Drew Rasmussen to the hill
• The Phillies have won 6 of 8; the Rays just won 2 of 3 over the Yankees

Wheeler Has Been Back in Form After 2 Shaky Starts

Zack Wheeler has been one of MLB‘s most consistent starters for the past eight years. This year has been no exception. But he had two starts against the Braves and Cardinals in which he gave up 9 runs in 11.1 innings. Since then, he has been back to his normal consistency pitching 19.2 innings over 3 starts, striking out 29, and giving up 6 earned runs.

The Rays’ Jonathan Aranda is 2 for 2 against Wheeler with a double and a home run. Yandy Diaz is 3 for 6. Brandon Lowe is 3 for 12 with a triple and a home run.

Bryce Harper is still trying to find his way at the plate. He’s batting .234 with a .786 OPS and 6 home runs. These are lower-than-expected numbers for him. J.T. Realmuto, at 34, is slowing down at the plate with a 96 OPS+. Kyle Schwarber is tied for the league lead in home runs with 11.

Rasmussen Has Quietly Been the Rays’ Best Starter

In six starts, Drew Rasmussen has thrown 30.2 innings and given up 23 hits. He has a 2.64 ERA and a 0.8 bWAR. He has thrown at least 5 innings in every start. He’s handled the Phillies very well except for Schwarber who is 3 for 8 against him with a home run.

The Rays are lucky in that the Yankees and Red Sox have not been playing as well as expected. Even at 16-18, they’re only 3 games out of first place. Their bullpen has been good, as it always is. Their hitting has been inconsistent. Rasmussen pitching as well as he has is a major reason why they’re still looming in contention in the division despite playing at the Yankees’ spring training home and the rest of their rotation struggling.

Phillies vs Rays Pick: Tampa Won’t Figure Out Wheeler

Despite how well Rasmussen has pitched, Wheeler is still one of baseball’s best starters. The Rays take advantage of other teams’ mistakes, but the Phillies have the pitching and power to take the opener of their series.