Mets vs Diamondbacks Pick: NY’s Senga Brings His 1.38 ERA to Arizona (May 7)

• Our Mets vs Diamondbacks pick gauges whether New York’s Kodai Senga can maintain the excellence leading to a 1.38 ERA so far this season
• Arizona starts Merrill Kelly, who has pitched well but for a terrible start against the Yankees
• New York is in 1st place in the NL East; Arizona has fallen to 4th in MLB‘s roughest division, the NL West, behind the Padres, Dodgers, and Giants

Senga Enjoying Great Comeback After Injury-Plagued 2024

In 2023, Kodai Senga was a highly coveted Japanese free agent. He signed with the Mets, started 29 games, had a 4.5 bWAR, struck out 202 in 166.1 innings, and allowed 126 hits. He was an All-Star, finished 2nd in the Rookie of the Year voting, and 7th in the NL Cy Young Award race.

Last season, he experienced arm fatigue and then a strained calf, pitching in one regular-season game and struggling in the postseason.

In 2025, he is having another great season. In 6 starts, he has a 1.38 ERA, has given up 26 hits in 32.2 innings, and struck out 31. His ERA is a minuscule 1.38.

Senga has experience against the D-Backs. As a team, Arizona is batting .148 against him. Corbin Carroll is 2 for 9 with 2 singles. Alex Thomas is 2 for 7 with 2 singles. No D-Back has homered against Senga, nor even had an extra base hit.

Pete Alonso, an early-season MVP favorite, is leading the Mets. He leads the NL or is near the top in all the key offensive categories. Stunningly, he leads the league in hitting with a batting average hovering around .350. He’s already amassed a 2.4 bWAR. Luisangel Acuña is coming of age in real time, batting near .300, playing great defense, and showing amazing base-stealing acumen.

Arizona Needs To Keep Pace in the NL West

The Diamondbacks tend to play their best in the second half, but with the NL West as nightmarish as it is, that may be too late. They are around .500 and fading in the division. Against the Mets, they send veteran Merrill Kelly to the hill.

Kelly has a 4.06 ERA, but has pitched better than it suggests. His ERA was ruined by a terrible outing against the Yankees when he gave up 9 runs in 3.2 innings. Since then, he has been very good pitching into the 6th inning four of five starts. In the fifth, he pitched 5 innings.

Alonso is 5 for 15 with 3 homers and a double against Kelly. Jeff McNeil has 2 homers in 9 at-bats against him. Juan Soto is 4 for 16 with a double.

Pavin Smith is having a magnificent year for Arizona with an OPS of nearly 1.000. Corbin Carroll is leading the majors in triples, already has double-digits in home runs, and has a 1.4 bWAR.

Mets vs Diamondbacks Pick: Senga Puts Down the D-Backs

Senga sometimes struggles with his control and in his last start against Arizona, he took the loss after a tough slog of 4 innings pitched, 5 hits and 3 walks allowed. He still struck out 6 and only gave up 1 run. Senga will beat the D-Backs this time.