Mets vs Braves Pick: New York Returns to Its House of Horrors (Jun 17)

• Our Mets vs Braves pick determines whether Truist Park in Atlanta will continue to be New York’s house of horrors
• The Mets (45-27, 1st place, NL East) are 13 games ahead of the Braves (31-39, 3rd place, NL East)
• New York starts David Peterson, coming off a complete game shutout of the Nationals
• Atlanta sends Spencer Schwellenbach to the hill; he also threw a complete game in his last start

Mets Try to Recover From Rays Sweep

The Mets are facing their first prolonged period of adversity in 2025. First, they lost Kodai Senga to a strained hamstring. Then they blew back-to-back leads against the Rays on Friday and Saturday before losing big on Sunday.

Now, they visit Truist Park in Atlanta, the home of their most hated rivals, the Braves. Their record there is 26-38. This is generally independent of how good or bad either team is. The Braves are eight games below .500 and 13 games behind the first-place Mets, but standings and stats have rarely mattered when the Mets visit Atlanta: bad things simply happen to them.

For the first game of the series, New York sends David Peterson to the hill. Peterson’s last start was a masterpiece. He shut out the Nationals, walked none, struck out six, and gave up six hits.

Against Peterson, the Braves’ Ronald Acuña Jr. is 5 for 18 with a double and a home run. Matt Olson is 4 for 16, but all 4 hits are home runs. Marcell Ozuna is 3 for 17 with 2 home runs.

Pete Alonso had a rough weekend against the Rays, but he’s still leading MLB in RBIs, has 17 homers, and an NL-leading 22 doubles.

New York’s bullpen struggled over the weekend, but it has been excellent for most of the season. The bullpen has been a bugaboo for them in past disasters in Atlanta.

These Are Not the Same Braves That Have Dominated the Mets

Even with their history of embarrassing the Mets in Atlanta, the Braves have not been good this season. Injuries are part of it, but several important bats have been underwhelming. Ozzie Albies has a .619 OPS. Michael Harris II is at .618. Neither are hitting for power. Shortstop Nick Allen has a .559 OPS.

The starting pitching, led by Spencer Schwellenbach and Chris Sale, has been generally good. Closer Raisel Iglesias has been horrific with a 6.23 ERA. He’s surrendered 7 home runs in 26 innings.

Schwellenbach has a 3.11 ERA in 14 starts. He’s thrown 89.2 innings and given up 76 hits and 31 earned runs. Against the Brewers in his last start, he pitched a complete game, allowed 5 hits, 2 runs, and struck out 9.

No Mets hitter has homered against Schwellenbach. Tyrone Taylor is 2 for 6 with a double. Alonso is 2 for 8 with a double. Jeff McNeil is 1 for 3 with a double. Brandon Nimmo is 0 for 9. Francisco Lindor is 0 for 6.

Mets vs Braves Pick: Peterson Pitches the Mets Past Their Ghosts

Some might dismiss the past and the seemingly supernatural bad things that happen to the Mets in Atlanta. Others view history as reality. Regardless, the current state of the Braves is not great, with a long road back to legitimate contention. Peterson pitched brilliantly against the Nats and has been consistently good all season. Although Schwellenbach has also been solid, the Mets’ bats are due for a breakout after a shaky weekend. They will take the opener in Atlanta.