Patriots vs Bills Pick: 2-2 New England Challenges Undefeated Buffalo (Oct 5)

• For NFL Week 5 Patriots-Bills, undefeated Buffalo hosts New England as the Pats try to establish themselves as playoff contenders
• New England caught the league’s attention with its Week 4 blowout of the Panthers
• Buffalo struggled more than expected against the Saints, but ultimately won 31-19
• The AFC East rivals split their two games in 2024, but the Pats won a meaningless final game of the regular season over the Bills

Mike Vrabel Could Have the Pats Back in the Playoffs

Although they are still rebuilding under new head coach Mike Vrabel, the Patriots’ 2-2 start has given them hope that they could contend earlier than expected. While their Week 4 opponents, the Panthers, are not a good team, a 42-13 win is impressive no matter who it’s against.

QB Drake Maye completed 14 of 17 passes for 203 yards and 2 TDs. He rushed for another.

Rhamondre Stevenson ran for 38 yards on 9 carries, making up for his fumbles in Week 3’s loss to the Steelers.

The Patriots will have four consecutive winnable games after they play the Bills, with matchups against the Saints, Titans, Browns, and Falcons. They also have two games remaining with the Jets, one with the Giants, and a second game with the Dolphins.

If they manage to beat the Bills, they’re a good bet to make the postseason.

Still, beating Buffalo is a tall order with the Pats’ defense so poor against the pass, ranked 26th in the league. Defensive back Christian Gonzalez returned against the Panthers, but the team is being cautious with him so he doesn’t reinjure his hamstring. He made 3 tackles in the blowout.

New England is 26th in the NFL in takeaway differential. They cannot turn the ball over if they hope to beat the Bills.

The Bills Emerged After a Surprisingly Tough Battle vs the Saints

The matchup against the Saints in Week 4 was a classic trap game, from which the Bills escaped with a 31-19 win. It was closer than the score indicates, as it was 21-19 with just under 9 minutes remaining.

Josh Allen completed 16 of 22 passes for 209 yards and a TD. He rushed for 45 yards on 7 carries and a TD. James Cook continued his brilliant season with 117 yards on 22 carries.

With Buffalo 1st in the NFL in rushing yards per game and the Pats 2nd in the league in defensive rushing yards against, this will be a tough battle for Cook and Allen to move the ball on the ground.

The Pats are vulnerable to the pass, so expect Allen to put the ball in the air early to set up the run. The Bills are next-to-last against the run on defense, so Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson will be crucial to the Pats’ offense.

The Bills are +3 in takeaway differential, good enough for 6th in the NFL.

Patriots vs Bills Pick

The Bills are favored by 9 points at home. It’s a large spread when factoring how much the Bills struggled against the Saints and how competitive New England has been. If the Patriots put the ball on the ground, they’re going to lose. They need to contain the Bills’ rushing attack to have a chance.

Maye is proving to have a flair for the dramatic and is improving week-to-week. He’s on the way to becoming a star.

The Bills have a fight on their hands and the Pats will keep the game within 9 points.