NFL: Were the 2025 Patriots a Fluke or Not?

• After the Seahawks won Super Bowl LX in a rout, the “2025 Patriots fluke” narrative took hold
• While no team making it all the way to the Super Bowl is a “fluke,” New England had some advantages based on the NFL scheduling template
• Were they fluky? Lucky? Opportunistic? All of the above? And how does it impact next year’s Super Bowl chances?

The Pats are 10th in the 2027 Super Bowl Odds

It’s unusual for a defending conference champion with a young core led by Drake Maye (23), TreVeyon Henderson (23), Kayshon Boutte (23), and Christian Gonzalez (23) to be 10th in the early odds for next year’s Super Bowl.

But that’s where the Pats are in the immediate aftermath of their 29-13 loss to the Seahawks in Super Bowl LX.

The game wasn’t as close as the score suggests, mostly because Maye couldn’t get the offense going, threw an egregious pick when they were getting some late momentum, and the defense was unable to stop Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III.

Offensive tackle and last year’s 4th overall pick Will Campbell had a disastrous game.

Regardless, they are in a very good spot for 2026 and, with a few tweaks and additions, they are likely here to stay for another extended run of success.

The Patriots’ 2025 Schedule Was Weak

After their 4-13 showing in 2024, which led owner Robert Kraft to fire head coach Jerod Mayo immediately after the final game of the season, the Pats were generally expected to be better in 2025 with new head coach Mike Vrabel and Maye under the tutelage of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.

But a Super Bowl?

It was a fantasy.

In fact, they lost their opening game to the eventual worst team in the league, the Raiders. Then they won 17 of 19 until they got to the Super Bowl.

The 2025 Pats’ schedule was weak. But looking at their wins and dismissing them by saying, “Oh, 13 of their 14 regular season wins were against teams that ended the season with losing records,” might be technically true, but it’s not fair.

Were the Panthers a “bad” team despite an 8-9 record?

Were the Buccaneers? The Falcons? The Bengals? The Ravens?

The Patriots didn’t beat the Jets 14 times.

They don’t make the schedule and they won the games. They benefited in the AFC Championship Game from the Broncos’ Bo Nix breaking his ankle the week before and the sudden snowstorm smothering Denver’s offense while hampering its kicking game.

Were they supposed to cancel the game and hold it at a neutral site in a dome?

Are they expected to apologize?

The Tom Brady/Bill Belichick Patriots basically had a bye to the AFC East title every year when looking at how weak the competition generally was. Nobody is calling them a fluke.

The Comparison to the Super Bowl XXXVI Run Was Shaky

This season had underlying parallels to the first Brady/Belichick Super Bowl win in 2001-02. Nobody was expecting it. They came from nowhere. And few believed in them even as they won one game after another until they held up the Lombardi Trophy after upsetting the Greatest Show on Turf Rams with Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk.

But while Brady burst onto the scene as a complete unknown, Maye was a very high draft pick from whom excellence was expected. Few expected a run to the Super Bowl in his second year, but it was the eventual objective.

Those Pats had a veteran core including Lawyer Milloy, Ty Law, Otis Smith, Ted Johnson, Willie McGinest, Anthony Pleasant, Bryan Cox, and Roman Phifer. Many had been on the team during the previous Super Bowl run under Bill Parcells or were on other winning teams.

This version of the Pats had veteran presence with Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry, Robert Spillane, Harold Landry, and a few others. But on the whole, they were extraordinarily inexperienced.

If nothing else, they gained extensive knowledge as to what the playoffs and Super Bowl are like and learned how to fully prepare for everything that accompanies reaching the pinnacle of the sport.

Taking Advantage of an Opportunity is Not a Fluke

A lucky punch or kick in an MMA fight from a heavy underdog who wins by knockout when he’s going to lose badly if the fight goes to a decision is a fluke.

A team that made the playoffs despite finishing below .500 and winning a game on a freakish fumble and a Hail Mary is a fluke.

But the Patriots making it all the way to the Super Bowl was not a fluke. They maximized their opportunities. It lasted for the entire season. They do need to make improvements in several areas, particularly the offensive line.

Now that they are again considered a playoff-caliber team, they won’t need to go above and beyond financially to convince free agents to sign.

Last year, picking them to go to Super Bowl LX would have been a “Why not?” wager to try and take advantage of overwhelming odds. They were +8000 to win the Super Bowl and they nearly did. Now, picking them to go to Super Bowl LXI is more of an educated guess that a team with management that knows how to construct and maintain successful teams will build on their unexpected rise and has a good chance of making it this far again. Or farther.

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